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Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is back on many investors’ radars after recent share price moves, with the stock closing at US$43.17 and showing mixed short and longer term return patterns.
See our latest analysis for Occidental Petroleum.
Recent trading has been choppy, with a 10.92% 1 month share price return and a 5.55% 3 month share price return. However, a 1 year total shareholder return of a 15.64% decline suggests longer term momentum has been fading.
If this kind of mixed energy story has your attention, it could be a good time to scan other aerospace and defense stocks as potential additions to your watchlist.
With Occidental trading at US$43.17, carrying a low internal value score of 2, an implied 14.76% gap to analyst targets and a 66.84% intrinsic discount, you have to ask: is this a mispriced opportunity, or is the market already baking in future growth?
Against a last close of US$43.17, the most followed narrative places Occidental Petroleum’s fair value at about US$49.63, pointing to a valuation gap that hinges on how investors see future profitability, capital efficiency and balance sheet repair playing out.
The fair value estimate was nudged slightly lower to about US$49.63 from roughly US$49.92, reflecting updated inputs across the model. The future P/E was reduced meaningfully to about 23.13x from roughly 42.33x, signaling a lower valuation multiple applied in the refreshed outlook.
Want to see what underpins a higher fair value even with softer revenue assumptions? The narrative leans on widening margins and a richer earnings multiple. Curious which forecasts really move the needle on that US$49.63 figure?
Result: Fair Value of $49.63 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the story can break if oil demand softens faster than expected, or if high leverage from deals and carbon projects strains Occidental’s balance sheet.
Find out about the key risks to this Occidental Petroleum narrative.
The fair value of about US$49.63 paints Occidental as undervalued, but the current P/E of 29.1x tells a different story. That is much higher than both the US Oil and Gas industry at 13.7x and the peer average at 21.8x, and also above the 20.7x fair ratio suggested by our model.
