Should Leviathan Expansion and Venezuela Push Reshape Chevron’s (CVX) Geopolitical Risk and Cash Flow Mix?

Chevron and its partners previously reached a final investment decision to expand the Leviathan natural gas field offshore Israel, aiming to double production capacity to about 21 billion cubic meters per year through new wells, subsea infrastructure, and platform upgrades to support regional energy security for Israel, Egypt, and Jordan. At the same time, Chevron’s push for an expanded U.S. license in Venezuela could materially reshape its mix of gas and heavy oil assets across politically sensitive regions. Next, we’ll examine how the Leviathan expansion decision could influence Chevron’s long-term cash flow profile and overall investment narrative.

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Chevron Investment Narrative Recap

To own Chevron, you need to be comfortable with a global, oil and gas focused business that is still heavily dependent on large upstream projects and commodity prices. The Leviathan expansion and potential Venezuela license both reinforce that high capital intensity and geopolitical exposure remain central to the story, but they do not fundamentally change the near term catalyst of delivering cost reductions and disciplined project execution, or the key risk of long term demand pressure from the energy transition.

Among recent announcements, the confirmation that Chevron expects 2025 production growth at the top end of its 6% to 8% guidance stands out next to the Leviathan decision. Together, they underline how much of the investment case hinges on turning a growing production base into resilient cash generation, even as earnings and margins have recently softened and capital spending commitments in places like the Eastern Mediterranean and Venezuela stay elevated.

Yet investors should also weigh how Chevron’s growing exposure to politically sensitive regions could affect…

Read the full narrative on Chevron (it’s free!)

Chevron’s narrative projects $196.0 billion revenue and $21.8 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 1.2% yearly revenue growth and a $8.1 billion earnings increase from $13.7 billion today.

Uncover how Chevron’s forecasts yield a $172.08 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesCVX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Twenty six members of the Simply Wall St Community currently place Chevron’s fair value between US$128 and US$326, highlighting very different expectations. Against that backdrop, Chevron’s reliance on large, long lived upstream projects ties those views directly to execution risk and future cash flow resilience, so it is worth exploring multiple perspectives before forming your own stance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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