President Donald Trump’s endorsement of U.S. Rep. Barry Moore in Alabama’s U.S. Senate race made Moore the favorite in the high-stakes campaign, political analysts said.

Trump’s popularity among Alabama Republicans is a strong as ever and his stamp of approval propels Moore ahead of Attorney General Steve Marshall and other GOP candidates for the open seat, Steve Flowers said.

“It’s a major development,” said Flowers, an author, former state lawmaker, and columnist.

“It makes Barry Moore the prohibitive favorite in that race. And that race had been sort of mundane and none of them had caught fire.”

Flowers said Moore and Marshall were the early favorites, ahead of three lesser known candidates.

“It looked like a Moore-Marshall race,” Flowers said. “I thought they were about dead even, but neither one of them was catching on real well.

“But this endorsement is a deal breaker. It’s a deal maker for Moore. It changed the landscape.”

The race is to succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor.

Jess Brown, retired political science professor at Athens State University and longtime observer of Alabama elections, said endorsements carry little influence as a rule, but that does not apply in this case.

“Generally speaking, I do not think candidates can effectively transfer support to others,” Brown said.

“But, the passion for Trump is unparalleled in the history of the Alabama GOP. The Trump endorsement is clearly a boost for Moore.

“Not sure it is absolutely decisive in an Alabama Republican primary, but it probably gives Moore an easy way to distinguish himself from Marshall among Republican stalwarts.”

Brown said a key question is whether Trump will follow up with a campaign rally for Moore this spring.

Brown also notes that Trump, despite his popularity with Alabama Republicans, has a mixed record on endorsements in state races.

In the special election for the U.S. Senate in 2017, Trump endorsed then-Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange, but Strange lost the Republican primary to former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore.

Trump then tried to rally support for Moore against Democrat Doug Jones, but Jones prevailed in a close race.

In the 2022 Senate race, Trump initially endorsed U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks but pulled the endorsement after a poll showed Brooks running a distant third behind Mike Durant and Katie Britt.

Trump claimed he pulled the endorsement because Brooks had told the crowd at his August 2021 rally in Cullman to put their concerns about alleged fraud in the 2020 election behind them and concentrate on winning in 2022. The crowd booed.

Trump eventually endorsed Britt in the runoff after she led Brooks 45% to 29% in the primary.

“Trump dumped Mo Brooks after a hearty endorsement in a prior Alabama U.S. Senate contest,” Brown said. “Trump likes to be with winners.

“And, remember how Trump gave a confusing and nuanced endorsement for Luther Strange at a live campaign rally for Strange. The net effect was to assist Judge Moore in a close primary race.

“When Trump senses his endorsee is vulnerable or that Trump has friends for other candidates, he seems to reassess the field quickly.”

Moore, who is from Enterprise, in serving his third two-year term in Congress and represents Alabama’s 1st district, which spans the southern edge of the state, from Dothan to Mobile.

Marshall has been Alabama’s attorney general since 2017.

Three other Republicans are competing for the nomination.

Jared Hudson, the first Republican to enter the race last year, is a former U.S. Navy SEAL who ran for Jefferson County sheriff in 2022.

Morgan Murphy is a Birmingham native and captain in the U.S. Navy reserve who has worked for the Trump administration and as national security advisor to Tuberville.

Rodney Walker is a cattle farmer and business owner.

In addition to the Trump endorsement, Moore also got a Saturday night endorsement from the Club for Growth, an organization that supports conservative candidates and that first backed Moore when he was elected to Congress in 2020.

Flowers said the Club for Growth endorsement guarantees that Moore’s campaign will be well funded.

“I think that is almost as important as the Trump endorsement because there’s a wealth of money that will come in here on Moore’s behalf,” Flowers said. “It will be almost unlimited.”

Although Flowers said the Trump endorsement makes Moore the favorite in the Republican primary, he said a runoff is likely.

A runoff will be necessary unless one of the five candidates gets more than 50% of the vote.

“I don’t think he wins without a runoff,” Flowers said.

“He could though. This could propel him to winning without a runoff. But Marshall is a substantial candidate. He’s got a following. He got the ALFA (Alabama Farmers Federation) endorsement.

“Plus two or three of these unknown candidates, they’re going to get some votes.”

“It will be difficult for Moore to win without a runoff.”

The primary is May 19.