Although a social media statement rather than enacted policy, the potential for an initial 10% tariff on UK exports to the US – followed by a hike to 25% is a cause for concern. While debate rages over the likelihood of it happening, it is not something that should be ignored by the UK technology channel. 

Even without selling into the US, technology and services providers in the UK operate within global markets where pricing, currency movements and customer confidence are tightly interconnected. As with previous geopolitical shocks, the immediate risk is less about the tariff itself and more about the uncertainty it injects into supply chains, contracts and buying behaviour.

That uncertainty is already being flagged by economic and trade bodies. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that renewed tariff threats and geopolitical tensions risk disrupting global supply chains, investment flows and financial markets well beyond the countries directly involved. The IMF noted that policy unpredictability is now one of the biggest drags on business confidence globally.

Why a US tariff matters, even without US customers

Trade experts have long argued that tariffs act as confidence shocks as much as cost drivers. The Thomson Reuters Global Trade Report 2026 found that nearly three-quarters of trade and procurement leaders now view US tariff volatility as the single most disruptive regulatory factor affecting planning decisions. The report highlights that many organisations delay capital investment and procurement decisions long before any tariff is imposed.

For IT product and service providers, that behaviour translates directly into slower customer decision-making. Device refresh programmes, infrastructure upgrades and even security projects can be paused as boards wait for cost clarity. Even customers without US operations can become more cautious if they expect inflationary pressure or supply disruption to follow.

It is not just hardware related. Managed services businesses depend on predictable input costs, yet tariff threats tend to shorten price-lock periods and encourage manufacturers to protect margin. According to analysis published by advisory firm Anchin in its 2025 review of tariff impacts on the technology sector, previous rounds of US-led tariffs resulted in higher component costs, tighter inventory allocation and faster repricing across global markets.

Crucially, this effect was not limited to products directly subject to tariffs. Anchin noted that technology supply chains are multi-layered, with components often crossing borders several times before final assembly. Any disruption at one stage can feed through into finished product pricing elsewhere, including Europe and the UK.

Currency fluctuation: the hidden risk in dollar-priced services

Perhaps the most immediate and least visible impact comes from currency volatility. Trade tensions often unsettle foreign exchange markets, and MSPs are heavily exposed to movements between sterling and the US dollar. Cloud services, security platforms, SaaS licences, backup tools and monitoring services are overwhelmingly priced in USD.

Historical data shows how quickly this can bite. In the first half of 2025, the US dollar recorded its worst start to a year in more than five decades, driven in part by concerns over trade policy and tariff escalation, according to analysis published by The Guardian based on market data from global currency traders. Sudden foreign exchange rate swings during that period translated into immediate cost changes for UK organisations buying dollar-denominated services.

For MSPs operating fixed-price or long-term contracts, this is a structural risk. Costs rise without any change to vendor list prices, while revenue remains static. Over time, margins erode quietly, particularly where multiple dollar-based services are bundled into a single per-user fee. Deloitte has previously warned, in its analysis of tariff-driven economic effects, that currency movements often amplify the downstream impact of trade policy by raising import costs even where tariffs are not directly applied.

Tariff uncertainty also affects buyer psychology. During the market turbulence triggered by tariff announcements in 2025, global equity markets fell sharply and technology stocks were among the hardest hit, reflecting investor concern over supply chains and future demand, according to reporting in the broader financial press.

This behaviour is mirrored at board level. When macro uncertainty rises, finance teams tend to defer discretionary spend. For MSPs, that means longer sales cycles, delayed project starts and increased scrutiny of pricing assumptions. Customers with US exposure, whether through suppliers or customers, are often the quickest to pause and reassess.

What UK MSPs should do now

It’s not all doom and gloom and the UK IT services sector is still buoyant while sentiment remains positive. Our recent Channel Predictions webinar found that 57% of MSP attendees where seeing growth and expected a strong 2026.

While MSPs cannot control tariffs or currency markets, they can control their exposure. The first step is contractual discipline. Separating service value from third-party costs and maintaining mechanisms to review pricing when supplier costs change materially helps avoid absorbing risk that sits outside the MSP’s control. Many analysts argue that transparent cost pass-throughs, clearly explained, are preferable to silent margin erosion.

Regular margin stress-testing is equally important. Modelling the impact of modest and severe currency swings across the stack allows MSP leaders to identify which services and clients carry the greatest exposure. This is not about predicting exchange rates, but about understanding where pressure will emerge first.

Standardisation remains one of the most effective operational defences. Industry research consistently shows that MSPs with tightly defined technology stacks and limited exceptions are better able to manage procurement shocks. Bespoke environments amplify volatility and complicate vendor negotiations at exactly the moment clarity is needed.

Supplier engagement should also shift from transactional to forward-looking. Distributors and vendors often have early visibility into pricing changes, FX assumptions and inventory allocation. Regular dialogue reduces the risk of being caught out by sudden repricing or shortened quote validity.

Finally, communication with clients matters. Customers do not expect MSPs to solve global trade tensions, but they do expect guidance. Explaining what is being monitored, how it may affect refresh cycles, and how continuity will be protected reinforces the MSP’s role as a strategic partner rather than a reactive supplier.

Stability as a competitive differentiator

Whether or not a 25% tariff is ever implemented, the broader lesson is clear. UK MSPs now operate in an environment where geopolitical tension and currency volatility are persistent features of the landscape. The MSPs that succeed will be those that anticipate disruption, protect margins intelligently and help customers navigate uncertainty with confidence. In a jittery market, stability is no longer just an outcome, it is a differentiator.