Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to be a key variable in gauging the global economic growth ..

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International Monetary Fund (IMF) building in Washington, DC, U.S. [EPA = Yonhap News]

Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to be a key variable in gauging the global economic growth trend this year. This is because if the spread of AI leads to improved productivity, it can boost the global economic growth rate, but on the contrary, if the AI bubble bursts, the growth rate could slow sharply.

According to the ‘January World Economic Outlook’ released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the 20th, the IMF said that the global economic growth rate could increase by up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026 depending on the speed of AI introduction and the use of AI in each country. The IMF then stressed, “In the medium term, the spread of AI may raise the global economic growth rate by an additional 0.1 to 0.8 percentage points per year.” The IMF forecast global economic growth of 3.3% this year.

In fact, positive signals are also appearing in some countries. The IMF assessed that the growth of the U.S. economy has accelerated significantly thanks to increased technology investment, including AI. U.S. growth rose to 4.3% on an annualized basis, with increased technology-related investments and spending estimated to have boosted annual average GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage points during the first three quarters of 2025.

As a condition for the success of AI proliferation, the IMF pointed out that △ stabilizing energy prices through smooth power supply △ expanding the supply of key intermediate goods such as semiconductors, parts, and minerals △ labor market transformation programs are needed to cope with job reorganization that occurs in the process of AI proliferation.

However, the IMF did not just offer optimism about AI. Rather, the IMF recently cited the fact that a small number of large technology companies are leading the rise in stock prices in the global stock market as a major risk factor. It is explained that if the stock price plunges, especially in technology stocks, as expectations for AI investment are reevaluated, the impact could spread due to a fall in the value of household assets, a contraction in consumption, and a decrease in investment. The IMF analyzed that if AI investment declines and “intermediate level adjustments” in technology valuation occur at the same time, the global economic growth rate in 2026 could be lowered by an additional 0.4 percentage point.

“The market capitalization of technology companies is much larger than that of dot-com bubble 25 years ago in terms of their share of gross domestic product (GDP),” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gurinshaas said, warning, “Even a small adjustment can have a big impact on the value of assets relative to income.”