By Jens-Peter Barynin
Published:Â 23 January, 2026
In the wake of Trump’s latest threat to impose 200% tariffs on French wine, Jens-Peter Barynin, chief economist at VIVI Economics, assesses the ongoing cost of such uncertainty.
For several days over the last week, the global wine industry once again found itself rattled by geopolitics. US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wine, a warning that emerged amid rising tensions in US-European relations and Trump’s push for greater US influence around Greenland. The dispute deepened after French President Emmanuel Macron declined to participate in a US-led peace initiative, prompting Trump to signal publicly that punitive trade measures on French wine would follow if France did not join. That threat was then abruptly withdrawn.
The threat was big in the world of wine. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of wine and the third-largest importer, slightly behind the UK and Germany. France is likewise a heavyweight in global wine markets, ranking among the top producers and exporters by value. A 200% tariff would have added roughly $23.60 to the cost of the average bottle of French wine consumed in the United States, according to analysis by VIVI Economics. Under such conditions, this trade would have collapsed.
While trade policy ultimately remains unchanged, it would be a mistake to conclude that nothing happened. US importers scrambled to assess exposure. Some already had shipments en route from France scheduled to arrive after 1 February, facing the prospect of tariffs large enough to erase margins entirely. In extreme cases, importers quietly considered abandoning cargo at port rather than absorbing losses that could jeopardize their businesses. Others froze new orders altogether. Once again, uncertainty rippled through the global wine supply chain, reinforcing the reality that wine can quickly become collateral damage in geopolitical disputes.
If this episode were an isolated scare, it might be easy to dismiss. But it is not. In March 2025, Trump issued a similar 200% tariff threat on European wine, champagne and spirits. That threat was also withdrawn, but made the fear that geopolitics could abruptly upend global wine markets all too apparent. Trump’s first tariffs on European wine during his first term actually stuck. Today, not all disputes have been resolved. The most notable is that Canadian provinces continue to boycott US alcohol as part of the ongoing trade disputes between these two countries.
Geopolitical tensions will continue. Trump’s ambitions remain expansive, and many of his positions continue to diverge sharply from those of key allies. Greenland remains a point of friction between Washington and Copenhagen. Europe and the United States remain misaligned on trade, environmental policy, Middle East diplomacy, and other important matters. It would be naïve to assume future clashes can be avoided, or that wine will not again be drawn into the line of fire.
Wine is especially vulnerable because of its global reach, its visibility to consumers, and its ability to generate economic pain quickly. It is impossible to predict where the next dispute will emerge or how severe it will be. What is predictable is that geopolitical friction will continue, and wine will remain exposed. This latest tariff scare may have passed, but it leaves behind a clear signal. In today’s wine economy, uncertainty itself has become a cost, and it is one the market will continue to pay.
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