Why aren’t Czechs having more children?

Last year, the United Nations reported that global fertility rates are in “unprecedented decline.” What does the global picture look like and where does the Czech Republic fit into it?

“Globally speaking, every continent except for Africa has been experiencing declining birth rates for several years. In Europe, it has been going on for several decades. Most European countries now have low birth rates and the Czech Republic is in the middle of that crowd alongside neighbouring countries in Central Europe.”

“In Europe, there is no country where the fertility rate is above the ‘replacement level’, which is 2.1 children per woman.”

In broad terms, why have fertility rates been declining in the Czech Republic? Is it due to economic reasons or is something changing in our society?

“These developments are so universal and so profound because there are so many contributing factors. Values are changing and it is no longer required to have children. The normative pressure is quite weak. We are affluent and socially secure societies and we no longer need children for social security. We do not need someone to take care of us in our old age because the welfare system will do it for us, as we expect to receive pensions and other forms of support. Children have become just one of the options.”

“However, having children is still valued. If you ask young adults about the future, most say that it would be nice to have children. Very few young adults say that they definitely do not want to have any children. But they do say that it depends on the conditions. If everything works fine in other areas of their life in terms of education, career, health, partnership status, housing etc., children would be welcome. But people are not under  strong pressure to have children. And very often their lives develop and children simply don’t happen in the end.”

“You wait for a promotion, you wait for the right partner, then there’s the housing situation… There are so many considerations. So people very often postpone, wait for a more opportune moment. And sometimes postponement follows after postponement and then they realise that it’s too late or they eventually try to conceive, but they can’t.”

The “fertility gap”

Is it possible to say what Czech society strives for when it comes to family life? How many children do people want to have in an ideal world?

“If you ask how many children someone would like to have, the average answer is still two. Very few people say they do not want to have any children. In most European societies, including Czechia, when people are 20 or 25, only five to eight per cent say that they never want to have children. But the reality later in life is quite different.”

“Very few people say that they do not want to have any children. But the reality later in life is quite different.”

“If you observe a cohort of women until the end of their reproductive life, one third of them do not fulfil that ideal. That is what demographers call a ‘fertility gap’ – the difference between the expected/desired number of children and the real number of children. This fertility gap is found everywhere in the affluent world.”

“What is important to realise when speaking about this ‘fertility gap’ is that it is significantly stratified depending on the women’s education level. The gap is much larger among college-educated women, which indicates one of the reasons why the gap occurs in the first place. That is the perceived conflict between family life and other spheres of life, especially career. Many people experience difficulties combining the two roles.”

Too many expectations? 

In your research on the Contemporary Czech Family, you also point to changing expectations around partnerships. What shifts are we seeing in society in terms of what women and men expect from a partner—and how do these changes contribute to lower fertility rates?

“There’s a stage of life in young adulthood when people do not want to commit to a long-term partnership. They have other things to do: education, career etc. This is the period of life when many people do not have any expectations or are not ready to act on their expectations. But the general trend in modern societies is that we expect more and more of our potential partners.”

“The general trend in modern societies is that we expect more and more of our potential partners.”

In the past, expectations were simpler: men were expected to be able to support a family, and women to bear children. Nowadays, our expectations are higher. Economic stability and health still matter, but we also look for a partner who is smart, educated, caring, who is fun to be with, and who can express emotions… Expectations pile up and then eventually, the pile becomes too high for some people to believe that there is someone out there who would meet their expectations. This might be one of the reasons why we see an increasing share of people who remain single throughout their lives and then have no children.”

The impact of lockdown

In the Czech Republic, there was a very strong decline in birth rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. How did that come about?

“During COVID-19 many people in Czechia experienced partnership crises that were linked to the economy of the household, as many people felt threatened economically. This translated into domestic tensions and conflicts – when you are under pressure economically, it is very difficult to be that nice, easy-going person that your partner wants. And eventually, at some point in 2021, when we asked people if they recently thought about breaking up with their partner, almost 30% of partnered respondents said yes. Imagine! Under normal conditions, the share of people who are contemplating a breakup is between 5% and 8% across different European societies. Of course, this was not a situation that was very conducive to producing children.”

But this was not the first time there was a strong decline in birth rates in the Czech Republic/Czechoslovakia. In the early 1990s, just after the fall of communism, there had been an even stronger decline.

“Yes, but the situation then was quite different. The late socialist family system was built around early parenthood. The average age at childbirth was just slightly above 20 for women and a significant proportion of children were born to women under 20. Then the system changed, and people realised that this might not be the best approach. So they decided – and I think it was the right decision – that  having children a little later than at age 20 might be better in order to complete your education and establish yourself on the job market. Then you can start your family not when you are 20, but when you are 26, 27 or 28.”

“The late socialist family system was built around early parenthood.”

“So yes, at the beginning of the 1990s, the number of children in Czechia and elsewhere in the post-socialist bloc declined significantly. But demographers were not that concerned because they knew these were mostly postponements.

“Today, however, the average age at childbearing is around 30. If parenthood is postponed for several more years, the chances of eventually realising that postponed fertility are quite low. In fact, at this stage of the demographic transition, postponement tends to work against childbearing. So yes, this is a different story.”

Looking into the future

What do you see for the future?  Will we just need to adjust as a society to having fewer children?

“I wouldn’t expect major upswings in fertility rates in the near future.”

“There are several factors behind current fertility levels, and the future fertility trends will depend on those factors. But presently, I do not anticipate those factors to change. Of course, the economy might improve, prices might stabilize, the housing market may somehow magically improve. And people notice these factors. In fact, most people are rational and when they see improvements in these conditions, they will have more children. But I don’t think it is realistic for any European country to have fertility above on average two children per woman in the next decade or so.”

“In the short run, we definitely have to think about adjustments in how society functions, how we build infrastructure. Ultimately it would be useful to help people have children, but I wouldn’t expect major upswings in fertility rates in the near future.”

There is also the risk of crossing a boundary and invading a woman’s privacy in terms of her own decision whether or not she wants to have a child.

“Absolutely. We have examples across the globe of political systems or political leaders who actually want to coerce women into having more children. Russia is one example, but staying within Europe, we see Hungary and Viktor Orbán, who has repeatedly made the nationalist claim that women are too egoistic and do not bear enough children and so they will be responsible for the dying of the great Hungarian nation. I think that is really unacceptable from a human point of view.”

In the Czech Republic, who are the people having the most children?  Is it mainly wealthier couples who can afford it?

“There is some stratification, which has become more pronounced recently but is not extreme yet. We see two offsetting effects. On one hand, the well-educated and wealthier couples do have the resources, but they also have less time to realise their plans. And so, they end up having fewer children than they intended. On the other hand, we see much higher fertility among less educated women. But we know that those women, still have fewer children than they expected. However, among the children that they do have, the share of unplanned children is higher.”

“So, there is this mix of carefully planned, rationally conceived children among the better off and partially unplanned children among the less well off. These trends partially offset each other.”

“The stratification also indicates that there is some room for intervention. Poorer families would appreciate additional resources provided by the state and that could drive fertility up a little bit.”

In your opinion, should that be the next step the Czech government should take? Offer more support to lower-income families?

“It’s certainly something that is on the table. I would not push this policy too strongly. It should be a result of a political debate. But yes, seeing the sociological and demographic data, we do see that there is some room for improvement or for additional children being born in response to increased investment into family policy.”