Kohl’s (KSS) has seen mixed share performance recently, with the stock down about 18% over the past month but still showing a positive total return over the past year.
For longer term holders, the picture is more uneven, with negative total returns over the past 3 years and 5 years, which may prompt investors to reassess how Kohl’s fits into their portfolio.
See our latest analysis for Kohl’s.
At a share price of $17.66, Kohl’s short term picture has softened, with a 30 day share price return of 18.24% decline, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 35.29% still reflects a stronger period for investors.
If recent retail volatility has you reassessing your watchlist, this can be a useful moment to look across fast growing stocks with high insider ownership that might offer a different balance of growth potential and conviction.
With Kohl’s trading at $17.66 and some measures suggesting a discount to certain value estimates, the key question is whether the recent share weakness offers a genuine entry point or if the market already reflects any future recovery.
Most Popular Narrative: 20.3% Undervalued
At $17.66, the most followed narrative implies a higher fair value for Kohl’s, using detailed cash flow and earnings assumptions to bridge that gap.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $14.279 for Kohl’s based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $40.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $4.5.
Want to see what sits behind that wide target range? The narrative leans on specific revenue paths, steady margins and a firm view on future earnings multiples. Curious which mix really drives the 12.5% discount rate and that higher fair value call? The full breakdown lays out every assumption feeding into the $22.17 estimate.
Result: Fair Value of $22.17 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, there are still scenarios where stronger proprietary brands and the Sephora rollout lift traffic and margins enough to challenge the cautious revenue and earnings path that is baked into this narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Kohl’s narrative.
Build Your Own Kohl’s Narrative
If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or prefer building your own view from the ground up, you can shape a fresh Kohl’s story in just a few minutes by starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Kohl’s research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
Looking for more investment ideas?
Before you move on, give yourself a broader set of options by scanning other ideas that line up with the kind of returns and risks you care about.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Discover if Kohl’s might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com