Images from the forensic institute in Tehran show numerous body bags of protesters killed during the demonstrations. Since the end of December, the regime has been cracking down on the uprisings with shoot-to-kill orders, internet shutdowns, and thousands of arrests. US President Trump continues to threaten military intervention and speaks of negotiations. – A commentary by Sohrab Mobasheri.
Shocking images from the large forensic medicine complex in Tehran: body bags everywhere – on the ground outdoors, in the halls, in a refrigerated truck. Numerous people, either searching for their loved ones or having already identified them and mourning. A monitor apparently displays 250 rotating photographs of the deceased’s faces, so that the faces can be matched to the numbers and thus to the numbered body bags.
The authenticity of the six-minute video , apparently recorded with a mobile phone and circulating on social media , has been confirmed. The scene can also be seen from the perspective of another camera – on Iranian state television.
The identities of the dead are also undisputed: they were killed during the demonstrations in the Iranian capital between January 8th and 10th. Iranian authorities claim that many people were victims of foreign agents. The Tasnim news agency, which is close to the security forces, reported on January 11th that over 100 members of the police and military had been killed during the protests since December 28, 2025.
Regardless of whether this claim is true, both the rulers and the protesters know that the number of dead among the demonstrators must be many times higher than the number of victims on the side of the repressive apparatus.
The fact that state television broadcast the footage from the grounds of the forensic medicine institute serves primarily the purpose of intimidation. The deterrent effect is disguised as an accusation against dubious murderers from among the demonstrators themselves. But nobody takes this accusation seriously. The core message is: Look, we’ll stop at nothing to maintain our power.
How events in Iran unfolded rapidly
Grand Bazzar closed after merchants joined the protests.
Several hours after the release of the images from the Tehran coroner’s office, US President Donald Trump commented on the events in Iran. He reiterated his threat of military intervention in Iran, but added that the Iranian leadership had proposed negotiations. According to Trump, a meeting between US and Iranian representatives is being prepared. However, he added that the US government might have to “act” even before the talks take place.
Since the protests began in Iran on December 28, events in the country have unfolded rapidly. While the demonstrations in the first few days mainly focused on economic demands, after just a few days numerous Iranian cities reported that thousands of people were demanding an end to the Islamic Republic system that had been in power since 1979.
The louder the calls for a regime change became, the more the initial – and for Iranian standards rather unusual – relative restraint of the security forces gave way to violent suppression of the demonstrations. As early as January 5, just over a week after the first protests, the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported at least 19 deaths.
From January 8th onward, the number of victims rose dramatically. A coalition of Kurdish parties and organizations had called for a strike on that day. Based on experience from months of protests in 2022, it became clear that the strike call would be widely heeded, particularly in the western regions with predominantly Kurdish populations. Therefore, former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who lives in the US, called on his supporters to also demonstrate starting on January 8th.
The reaction of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, who stands above the president and all other officials, was swift. Unlike his initial speech after the protests began, in a speech on January 9th he no longer distinguished between legitimate protest and what he termed reprehensible “riots.” On January 9th, he spoke only of unrest allegedly instigated by foreign powers, particularly the United States.
Internet shutdown and shoot-to-kill order
Khamenei’s speech on January 9th was also understood as a reaction to the statements made by US President Donald Trump. In the first days of the new year, Trump had repeatedly threatened the Islamic Republic of Iran with military strikes should peaceful protesters be shot dead by Iranian security forces.
The verbal clash between the two leaders was accompanied by escalating violence in several Iranian cities. The Islamic State prepared for the bloody suppression of the protests with a total internet shutdown imposed on the afternoon of January 8th and simultaneously apparently issued orders to shoot.
Within three days, by January 11, the reported death toll from the country had risen to three figures. HRANA, a US-based organization co-funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), reported on January 11 that at least 490 protesters had been killed between December 28, 2025, and January 11, 2026. According to HRANA, 48 members of the security forces also lost their lives during the same period.
What is known about the protests
On the evening of January 8th, the Iranian government cut the country off from the global internet. While objective reporting on the protests in Iranian cities was already difficult enough during the first eleven days due to a lack of independent observers on the ground, the country’s digital isolation made it impossible. Despite the cyberblockade, however, a comparison of reports from the few state media outlets accessible outside the country with consistent eyewitness accounts that sporadically reached foreign sources reveals the following picture:
Hundreds of demonstrators have been killed by Iranian security forces since December 28. With the end of the country’s cyber isolation, announced by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on January 12, further reports will reach foreign countries. The death toll will almost certainly be revised upwards. It is feared that the number of fatalities is in the thousands.
Thousands have been arrested since the protests began. HRANA reports 10,600 arrests in Iran.
Protests appear to have taken place in over 100 locations across all 31 Iranian provinces, according to consistent reports from both state media and the opposition.
The claim by some exiled Iranians about the alleged participation of millions of people in the protests is unverifiable. Several films, most likely authentic, show thousands of demonstrators.
“Death to the dictator” is the most frequently heard cry in many seemingly authentic recordings from protesters’ mobile devices. Alongside slogans against the Islamic Republic, a number of recordings capture some people calling for the return of former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. However, many cases have been documented where such voices were added to the recordings after the fact.
Regardless of these manipulations, it is clear that the monarchists demonstrating in Iran were urged by their leaders abroad to openly declare their support for Reza Pahlavi. This stance, disregarding other protesters, is being used by Persian-language, Western-funded media as a pretext to declare the son of the monarch who fled in 1979 the leader of the protest movement.
Although the call for a strike on January 8th was largely heeded in the Kurdish provinces, these provinces, unlike in 2022, were not the focus of the demonstrations since the end of December 2025. Apart from an initial emphasis on the legitimacy of the protests, no further statements are known from the trade unions active in Iran and other civil society groups in the country.
Regional escalation or a deal at the expense of the protesters?
President Trump at the Israel Museum. Jerusalem May 23, 2017
President Trump at the Israel Museum. Jerusalem May 23, 2017
Donald Trump’s first reaction to the protests in Iran came on January 2, five days after the first demonstrations in the Iranian capital, Tehran. Trump wrote: “When Iran shoots and kills peaceful protesters, as is its custom, the United States will step in to rescue them. We stand loaded and ready.”
Unsurprisingly, the Iranian government denounced Trump’s threat as interference in Iran’s internal affairs. The reactions of Iranian protesters and the exiled Iranian opposition to the US president’s announcement varied. While right-wing and especially monarchist forces welcomed Trump’s threat, which he later reiterated verbally, left-wing and some center-right Republicans condemned Donald Trump’s attempt to turn the protests in Iran into a renewed military conflict between the two countries.
Undeterred by warnings about the consequences of US military intervention, Reza Pahlavi, in an interview broadcast on January 11th on the US television channel Fox News, called on Trump to follow through on his announcement of military intervention.
On the same day, a letter from seven exiled Iranians to Trump was published, urging the US president to “take action against the oppressive system” in Iran. The letter was signed by prominent monarchists as well as two other individuals: Abdollah Mohtadi, the leader of one of several factions within the Kurdish Komala Party, and Shirin Ebadi, the exiled 2003 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
On the same day, January 11, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf used a parliamentary session in Tehran to announce that in the event of a military conflict, both Israel and the US military bases in Iran’s neighboring countries were considered possible targets of Iranian attacks.
As of January 12th, both a US military strike against Iran and a deal between the two governments at the expense of the people demonstrating in Iran are conceivable. It is even conceivable that both could happen.
Warning of an armed rebellion
A few days after Donald Trump’s initial threat of military intervention, the Iranian left-wing opposition received a warning from neighboring Iraq. Iraqi communists reminded their counterparts in Iran, with whom they have maintained contacts for decades, of the events of 1991.
At that time, after the expulsion of the Iraqi army from Kuwait, the US government encouraged the Iraqi opposition to revolt. This uprising did indeed occur. Some Iraqi provinces were temporarily controlled by the opposition. However, the US government under George H.W. Bush subsequently allowed the military of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to brutally suppress the revolt.
More than three decades after this bitter experience, the message from Iraq to the Iranian left was unmistakable: Don’t let the US manipulate you. Washington will ultimately let you down.
The validity of this warning is demonstrated by the dual tactic of the US government, which became apparent with Trump’s remarks on January 11: the threat of military action coupled with negotiations. Trump’s propensity for such maneuvers was made clear at the latest by his stance in the case of Venezuela. Washington sees no contradiction between military intervention in a country and negotiations with rulers weakened by the military intervention.
The position of a segment of the Iranian left was articulated in a statement issued by the Hekmatist Party – named after a deceased communist. This statement, dated January 8th, specifically warns against the followers of Reza Pahlavi. According to the authors, a premature armed rebellion by the population would force them into an unequal struggle against the heavily armed security forces. The authors accuse Pahlavi of instructing his followers to co-opt the protests with monarchist slogans and to attack dissenters during the demonstrations.
In fact, exiled monarchists openly speak of the existence of the so-called “Eternal Guard,” which is active in Iran. “Eternal Guard” was the name given to an elite military unit that, as the last line of defense of the Shah’s regime, attempted to violently suppress the revolution against the monarchy until its overthrow on February 11, 1979.
Pro-Pahlavi groups claim to have formed insurgent groups in Iran in recent months, calling themselves the “Eternal Guard.” Regardless of the veracity of these claims, it is striking that in some protests, a minority loudly and repeatedly chants the same slogans in support of the monarchy.
That Reza Pahlavi and his followers intended to escalate the protests into a coup is not denied by them. As recently as January 10th, Pahlavi himself called on his supporters in Iran to no longer be content with merely maintaining a presence on the streets. Rather, he said it was time to occupy the city centers and seize power. He announced his imminent return to Iran. However, he cannot expect Trump to negotiate this with the Islamic Republic.
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