EU considers naval mission to free Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Brussels fears famine in countries dependent on wheat blocked by Russia in Ukrainian silos and ports

8 comments

1. [*”Putin is hoping that disruption of grain supplies will lead to a migration crisis with starving people fleeing to Europe. This will destabilize the EU and push us to soften sanctions on Russia”*](https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news/frueherer-botschafter-in-moskau-putin-will-fluechtlingskrise-provozieren-li.229264) – Former German Ambassador to Moscow

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   Monday’s European summit in Brussels will address the growing risk of famine in countries dependent on Ukraine’s agricultural exports, which have been blocked by Russia following its invasion of the country on 24 February. The EU is ready to mobilise all possible resources to facilitate the release of the grain accumulated in Ukrainian silos and ports. And on the table is even the possibility of launching a naval mission to escort the passage of cargo ships from Ukraine through a Black Sea infested with mines and guarded by Russian ships and submarines.

   By land. Or by river. Or even by sea. The European Union considers it essential to remove as soon as possible the thousands of tons of corn, barley and, above all, wheat, blocked on Ukrainian territory for three months. The draft conclusions of the summit, to which EL PAÍS has had access, “strongly condemns the destruction and illegal appropriation of Ukraine’s agricultural production by Russia”. And it calls on Moscow to “end the blockade of Ukrainian ports and allow the export of food, particularly from Odessa”.

   The operations devised to export all this produce by rail through Poland or by river to the Romanian port of Constanta are not working as planned. And Brussels is now considering, according to EU sources, the launch of a naval mission derived from the common security and defence policy to ensure that the grain leaves directly from the Ukrainian city of Odessa, the port on the Black Sea that channelled most of the export until the start of the war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

   The naval operation to remove the Ukrainian grain would pose an extreme risk of a possible military clash with the Russian navy. But Brussels is watching with almost equal dread the outbreak of a humanitarian crisis in the countries whose most basic food needs depend on Ukrainian exports. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi telephoned Putin on Thursday and Volodymir Zelenski on Friday to sound out the possibility of an agreement between the two sides that would allow Ukrainian ports to be cleared and grain to be shipped out. But Putin blames the problem on European sanctions and Draghi has warned that a food crisis “of gigantic proportions and terrible human consequences” is looming.

   According to European Commission figures, Tunisia imports 53% of its wheat from Ukraine, Libya 44% and Egypt 26%. In India and Pakistan, which have almost 1.7 billion people, dependence on Ukrainian wheat is almost 50 percent. The shortage of grain in all these countries could trigger, in addition to a famine, an economic and social crisis that would lead to waves of migration that would sooner or later arrive in Europe.

   Until the outbreak of the war, Ukraine exported an annual average of 18 million tonnes of wheat, 24 million tonnes of maize and nearly five million tonnes of barley, according to figures from the International Grains Council, an intergovernmental organization that promotes stability in the world grain market. The sudden halt in Ukrainian exports, blocked by the Russian navy, has jeopardized the stability of that market and the food security of part of the planet.

   “The debate on a common security and defence policy mission is inevitable,” says an EU source. The EU currently has 18 such missions in operation around the world, some of them naval, such as the one in the Mediterranean to ensure compliance with the arms embargo on Libya or the one combating piracy in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Somalia. But all the sources consulted acknowledge that an operation in the Black Sea is an unprecedented risk for European forces.
   The first difficulty, of a diplomatic nature, would be to allow European ships to pass through to the port of Odessa.

   Since 1936, the entry of warships from non-coastal countries into the Black Sea has been regulated and limited by the Montreux Convention. That international agreement gives the key to the straits of entry to the Government of Turkey.

   The government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has supported UN resolutions demanding that Moscow end its aggression against Ukraine. But Turkey is the only Nato country that has distanced itself from the sanctions imposed on the Kremlin by the EU and the US. And it has not hesitated to set conditions for admitting Finland and Sweden into the Atlantic Alliance, two historically neutral countries alarmed by the return of war to the European continent.

   Even so, “Turkey would give permission for the passage of European ships,” says a senior EU source. The reason for optimism is based on the fact that it would not be an aggressive operation but of an eminently humanitarian nature because the feeding of millions of people could depend on its success.

   “Russia’s military aggression risks having a dramatic effect on global food security,” says the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, in his letter of invitation to the 27 European leaders for the summit on May 30-31 in Brussels. And the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, accuses Putin of using food as a weapon of war, just as he has done with energy supplies.

   “Russian artillery is deliberately shelling granaries in Ukraine and Russian warships in the Black Sea are blocking the departure of Ukrainian ships full of wheat and sunflower seeds,” von der Leyen lamented during her speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday.

   Michel said in his letter: “At the European summit we will discuss concrete ways to help Ukraine export its agricultural production using EU infrastructure. The Council President adds: “We will also look at how to better coordinate multilateral initiatives in this regard. The meeting of the 27 will be attended remotely by the President of the African Union, Macky Sall, a sign of the EU’s concern about the vulnerability of African countries.

   The EU wants to demonstrate to the countries at risk of famine that the lack of grain is not the result of European sanctions, as Russian propaganda claims, but of the armed blockade of Ukrainian ports. The draft conclusions of the summit include “a commitment to keep world trade in food commodities free of unjustified barriers”. And it promises “solidarity towards the most vulnerable countries”.

2. As this is a strategic threat to many western countries, military force should absolutely be on the table to secure the grain distribution chain.

3. Do y’all want a war with russia? because this is how you get a war with russia. Not that I’d be opposed to it, but just saying

4. I am sure that the defenders of Mariupol will appreciate the naval mission for the wheat, after there was no naval mission to get them out. This will totally play the fiddle for Russian propaganda.

5. The eu will never get the members who could actually do this to agree.

6. Just fucking do it.. now. Dithering from the west has already cost the Ukrainians their early momentum.

7. This is nonsense:

   1) Ukraine has closed its ports to arrivals and departures, oh, and then there are its minefields.
   2) Turkey has triggered the Montreux Convention war clause and closed the Bosphorus to all warships other than those already registered as having a Black Sea home port.
   3) cargo vessels can pass through the Bosphorus as they please, but I’m sure each one will be searched by Russia going in and coming out of Ukraine.
   4) no company in the world is going to insure a ship wanting to travel through a mine field.

8. The EU is afraid of an Arab Spring 2.0