Oil prices ebbed lower on Tuesday morning, as investors looked to an expected recovery in output from Kazakhstan, which would result in greater supply back into the market.

Brent crude (BZ=F) futures declined nearly 0.7% to $64.35 per barrel at the time of writing, while West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) fell 0.6% to $60.29 a barrel.

ING’s head of commodities strategy Warren Patterson and commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said that freezing conditions in the US due to the winter storm would disrupt the country’s oil output.

They said that there are also “signs that the honeymoon phase between the US and the new Venezuelan leader may be coming to an end, with President Delcy Rodriguez saying Venezuela has had enough of US interference.”

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“While these comments may be more for internal consumption, they are certainly worth keeping an eye on, as they could alter the outlook for Venezuelan oil supply,” they said.

At the same time, Patterson and Manthey highlighted that Kazakhstan’s oil output is set to recover, with producer Tengizchevroil restoring power to its Tengiz field. They explained that operations at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz and Korolev fields, which produced around 890k barrels per day over the first three quarters of 2025, were halted last week due to power issues.

In addition, Patterson and Manthey said that the completion of repair work at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal “should also support a recovery in export flows”.

“A recovery in these flows should improve availability in the prompt market, putting some pressure on the Brent prompt spread, which has strengthened significantly through January,” they said. “The strength in timespreads has been at odds with estimates for a large oil surplus.”

Gold prices were mixed on Tuesday morning, as investors weighed concerns about the potential for another US government shutdown and developments in geopolitics.

Gold futures (GC=F) were steady, trading at $5,078.40 per ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold was up 1.5% at $5,083.01.

Investors have been flocking towards gold as uncertainty has fuelled demand for safe havens, which has pushed prices to fresh highs.

“The latest round of political uncertainty relates to the possibility of another government shutdown, with the Democrats threatening to block a federal spending package arising from the administration’s crackdown on immigration and including an allocation for Homeland Security in the face of the recent shootings in Minnesota,” said Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor.

“Elsewhere, the president continued his tariff tirade, raising duties on some South Korean goods from 15% to 25% on the basis that a preliminary trade pact had not yet been approved from the authorities there,” he said. “This is apart from a threat to Canada of 100% tariffs should it proceed with a free trade deal with China, the likelihood of which has been denied by prime minister Carney.”

The pound was little changed against the dollar (GBPUSD=X) on Tuesday morning, trading at $1.3669 at the time of writing, as the greenback recovered some ground in early trading.

The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB), which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, edged 0.2% higher on Tuesday morning to 97.18.

In addition to the potential for another US shutdown and geopolitical concerns, investor attention is also focused on the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, due on Wednesday.

Colin Finlayson, investment manager at Aegon Asset Management, said: “The Federal Reserve meeting this week will be closely watched – not because a rate cut is expected (it isn’t), but because it marks the first meeting since Chair Powell was served with a subpoena by the Department of Justice.

“The press conference is likely to attract questions on that development, as well as on the ongoing case involving Governor Lisa Cook. Powell, however, will no doubt try to keep the focus on monetary policy.”

In other currency moves, the pound inched 0.1% higher against the euro (GBPEUR=X) on Tuesday morning, trading at €1.1526 at the time of writing.

More broadly, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) rose 0.2% European trading, to 10,172 points. For more details on market movements check our live coverage here.

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