Russia is tightening control over Belarus’s internal political processes, aiming to reduce the risks of sudden regime change and its foreign policy course.
According to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service, these trends are corroborated by available intelligence.
Context and Moscow’s Response
According to SAB, the main platform for such steps is the Union State, where the Foreign Ministry coordinates actions and integration programs are implemented. Moscow is increasingly reacting to signals from Minsk about greater autonomy, notably to the resumption of economic contacts with Europe, which reduces its influence.
According to SAB’s assessment, a change of power in Belarus without coordination with the Kremlin is considered a threat, so Moscow seeks to ensure the future leader’s structural dependence on a pro-Russian course.
“Despite the absence of direct control over Lukashenko’s policy, both sides are trying to avoid a repetition of the 2020 protests. Russia will block any steps by Minsk toward closer ties with the EU if they run counter to its interests”
– Statement
The economy and the military-political dimension are increasingly intertwined. About 500 Belarusian enterprises are integrated into Russia’s military production, including the development of a drone factory with a capacity of up to 100 thousand drones per year. Belarus annually supplies about 480 thousand artillery and missile munitions for Russian systems.
“The war against Ukraine has shown: Belarus’s civil economy effectively serves Moscow’s military needs, allowing the regime to avoid direct participation in hostilities while reaping economic benefits. In the long term, Minsk’s role in Russia’s military-industrial plans will only grow”
– SAB
They are also considering long-term plans regarding Latvia and the use of new hybrid influence tools ahead of this autumn’s parliamentary elections.
In summary, strengthening Russian control over the Belarusian political process could have significant implications for regional security, the economy, and the interaction between the Baltic states and Russia in the context of future electoral campaigns in the region.