Severe winter conditions sweeping across the United States have sharply disrupted natural gas production and pushed prices to their highest levels of the season, according to new analyses from Rystad Energy and Wood Mackenzie.
The storm, named Winter Storm Fern, has curtailed output across key producing regions, including the Permian Basin, Rockies, and Mid‑Continent.
Rystad Energy’s latest assessment indicates that the initial loss in natural gas supply reached about 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd), followed by a steep decline of 12 Bcfd as conditions worsened, particularly along the Gulf Coast and in Texas.
The company expects total peak losses to approach 20 Bcfd when accounting for output from intrastate pipelines that do not appear in federal flow data.
Appalachian and Bakken production, areas generally more resilient to freezing temperatures, experienced only minor slowdowns.
The intensity of the weather‑related disruptions appears comparable to those seen in early‑year storms in 2022 and 2024, exceeding the scale of last winter’s event.
Peak impacts were registered on January 27, with analysts anticipating significant short‑term constraints through mid‑week before output begins to normalise.
Rystad’s monthly modelling suggests that the January 2026 U.S. lower‑48 gas production average, originally forecast at 104 Bcfd, could face a base‑case downside of 3.3 Bcfd.
In a more severe scenario resembling the 2021 Winter Storm Uri, losses could deepen by a further 2.3 Bcfd, driven largely by the Permian, Haynesville, and Eagle Ford regions within Petroleum Administrative District 3.
Oil production has also felt the chill. Using gas‑to‑oil ratios to project the impact, Rystad estimates that the Lower 48’s onshore crude output for January could fall by roughly 390,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its pre‑freeze level of 11.4 million bpd.
The downside scenario would bring a potential additional loss of about 270,000 bpd, again concentrated in southern basins.
The production setbacks and weather‑driven surge in demand have sparked a sharp rebound in futures pricing.
The Henry Hub contract for February through December 2026 opened at an average of US$4.31 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on January 26, up from US$3.22 only a week earlier.
Analysts suggest the stronger pricing could prompt some producers to revisit drilling plans for this year, though many are expected to maintain a cautious stance amid continued volatility.
Wood Mackenzie’s separate analysis underscores the scale of disruption.
The firm recorded a single‑day peak in U.S. gas freeze‑offs of 17 billion cubic feet on January 25, just under the record set during Winter Storm Uri in 2021.
It estimates current weather‑related losses near 13.5 Bcfd, leaving total production across the Lower 48 around 95.8 Bcfd.
Cumulative freeze‑offs for the 2025‑2026 winter now exceed 58 billion cubic feet.
Analysts from the firm note that this year’s cold snap is both more intense and shorter‑lived than in 2025, with freezing conditions reaching unusually far south across the country.
This has triggered sweeping pipeline under‑performance notices and exposed the sector’s ongoing deliverability challenges, as daily withdrawal limits from storage cannot always meet sudden regional demand spikes.
With frigid weather persisting and markets tightening, traders are bracing for continued price turbulence through February, even as temperatures are forecast to moderate later in the month.
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