The Greenland crisis illustrates a sharp shift away from a multilateral, rules-based international order towards a ruthless global arena in which might makes right and liberal democracies are under threat. Amid wider debates about the deteriorating state of global affairs, the role of climate change as an enabling factor should not be overlooked.    

Greenland’s strategic importance is rising as Arctic ice melts due to climate change, making surrounding waters increasingly navigable for commercial and military activity. This has intensified competition among Russia, the US and China for influence in this ‘new frontier’. Because climate change is a man-made phenomenon, much of the geopolitical struggle unfolding in the Arctic could have been mitigated – or even prevented – had adequate policies and incentives been put in place.   

The immediate dispute over Greenland is driven by Trump’s territorial aspirations, which cannot be justified by the Arctic’s geopolitical sensitivity. However, climate change can act as a threat multiplier, including for such dangerous narratives from the White House.

Despite setbacks in global climate action, the EU must resist the green backlash and stay true to its climate commitments. This is a strategic necessity to prevent future crises while safeguarding long-term economic and social interests. The Union should pursue collaboration with like-minded partners, including pro-climate and liberal forces in the US, recognising that current political constellations are not fixed. While strengthening its defence capabilities, economic resilience and crisis-response mechanisms, the EU should remember an old insight: the greatest victory is one that requires no battle.

 

Stefan Å ipka is Head of the Sustainable Prosperity for Europe programme at the European Policy Centre.

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