Even as the European Union (EU) has scrambled to reduce Russian fossil fuel imports and ensure energy security following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, CREA’s annual review of the EU’s CO2 emissions and fossil fuel imports reveals that slow progress on electrifying transport and heating, and insufficient investment in new clean power generation, have kept the bloc reliant on fossil fuels and seen emission reductions lag behind targets for the second year in a row.

In 2025, emissions fell by only 0.8% in the EU, and clean energy investments have fallen behind fossil fuel imports, with the United States now the largest supplier of fossil fuels to the EU for the first time. 

The U.S. provided 19% of the EU’s total fossil fuel imports, a 7% year-on-year increase driven by rising LNG exports, and the average EU citizen spent EUR 150 on imports from the U.S., calling into question the bloc’s commitment to energy security as it shifts away from Russian fossil fuel imports to the U.S., and clean energy investments come up short. The EU’s overall fossil fuel imports in 2025 came to approximately EUR 880 per citizen for a total of EUR 396 bn, versus EUR 330 bn spent on clean energy. 

To meet 2030 energy and emission targets, the EU’s deployment of key clean energy technologies, including solar, wind, EVs and heat pumps must increase. In 2025, wind saw an increase of 16.5 gigawatts (GW), versus the 25 GW per year needed to meet the EU’s energy security and climate goals, and although solar power generation growth exceeded the required rate in 2025, solar saw its first annual contraction since 2016. Progress now requires commitment to streamlined permitting, management of grid bottlenecks, electrification, and investment in energy storage, the lack of which point to ineffective policies to-date.

Lagging progress on clean energy and clean transportation has harmed the EU’s energy security: deploying wind power and cleaning up transportation in line with the bloc’s 2030 targets would have reduced both oil and gas consumption by more than the total imports from Russia in 2025. In other words, all of the oil and gas imported from Russia was used to cover the shortfall to these targets.

Slow and delayed progress in cleaner transportation is threatening the EU’s 2030 climate and energy goals. Recent years have seen increases in transportation emissions from rising transport oil consumption push the EU’s total emissions off track by 4%. Not only are the bloc’s 2030 targets at risk but the countries lobbying hardest to drop a combustion-engine vehicle ban — Germany and Italy — have also been hit hardest by the economic and health impacts of the emissions, which will cost upwards of EUR 500 billion and lead to some 100 thousand deaths per year from 2009 to 2040, according to CREA’s estimates.

2025 EU CO2 emissions by sector

In 2025, the EU’s CO2 emissions were unchanged in transportation (-0.1%), fell 2.1% in power generation and 3.2% in industry, and increased 5.5% in gas-fired heating.

EU CO2 emissions by sector compared to target pathways 

Cold weather and poor conditions for hydropower and wind power contributed to an increase in heating and lower reduction in power sector emissions.

Adverse weather also masked progress on the energy transition. The EU’s CO2 drop by approximately 0.8% in 2025 was slower than the 2.1% reduction in 2024 but when controlling for weather variation, emission reductions accelerated in 2025. Without changes in weather year-to-year, emissions would have fallen 3.8% 2025, and 1.3% in 2024. The 2025 reduction is close to alignment with the 4.0% per year rate required in the next five years to meet the bloc’s greenhouse gas emission targets.

2025 EU CO2 emissions fluctuations by country

Finland saw the greatest reductions in emissions at -6%, followed by Hungary,  the Netherlands and Sweden at -2%. Bulgaria had the greatest increase +6%, followed by Spain +3%, Portugal and Czechia at +2%, and Belgium at +1%. In absolute terms, the largest emissions reductions were in Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands, and the largest increases were in Spain, Bulgaria, and Italy.


Change in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels by EU country: 2025 vs. 2024 

Policy recommendations

Remove barriers to economically attractive clean energy investments.

Pave the way for energy storage, in particular removing barriers to deployment and ensuring that energy storage can compete on a level playing field with incumbent technologies to provide grid flexibility and stability. 

Accelerate electrification in transport, heating and industry.

Close loopholes in the sanctions and end imports of Russian fossil fuels, notably ending Hungary and Slovakia’s unnecessary imports of Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline.

Prevent the re-exportation and relabelling of Russian refined fuels from storage terminals such as those in Turkey. 

Clearly define, or remove, the ‘emergency’ clause in the REPowerEU regulation so that gas market tightness can’t be used as a pretext to reintroduce Russian gas.