Find winning stocks in any market cycle. Join 7 million investors using Simply Wall St’s investing ideas for FREE.
With no single headline event driving attention, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is drawing interest as investors review its recent share performance, profitability figures, and value score in the context of the broader energy sector.
The stock shows a 0.1% move over the past day and a 3.1% decline over the past week, alongside a gain of 5.1% in the past month and a 12.1% decline over the past 3 months.
See our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum.
At a share price of US$172.01, Marathon Petroleum’s recent 5.1% 1 month share price return contrasts with a 12.1% 3 month share price decline. Its 16.1% 1 year total shareholder return and 314.5% 5 year total shareholder return point to stronger longer term momentum than the shorter term swings suggest.
If you are weighing Marathon Petroleum alongside other opportunities, this can be a good moment to broaden your search with aerospace and defense stocks as another sector to consider.
With a value score of 4, an indicated intrinsic discount of 62.2% and a price of US$172.01 versus a US$194.83 analyst target, you have to ask: is there genuine upside here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?
Against the last close of $172.01, the most followed narrative sees fair value around $194.61, built on detailed assumptions about future earnings and margins.
Disciplined capital allocation through continued share buybacks, increasing MPLX distributions, and maintenance of an investment-grade balance sheet are set to drive higher earnings per share and sustained shareholder returns, aligning with positive long-term company trends.
Want to see what sits behind that confidence in EPS power? Revenue expectations, margin rebuild, and a future earnings multiple all work together in this fair value story. The exact mix may surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $194.61 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, that fair value story can crack if long term demand for gasoline and diesel weakens faster than expected or if tighter carbon rules hurt refinery economics.
Find out about the key risks to this Marathon Petroleum narrative.
The fair value of $194.61 leans on earnings and cash flow assumptions, but the current P/E of 18x adds a different twist. It looks expensive versus the US Oil and Gas industry at 13.6x, yet cheaper than peers at 31.8x and below a fair ratio of 21x. Is that a cushion or a value trap if expectations reset?
