In demography, small differences can, in fact, be very large. So the fact that women giving birth in Ireland are a couple of years older than the EU average is significant. Figures for 2023 – the latest complete EU data – show that the average age of a woman giving birth here was 33.2, the highest in the EU and two years above the EU average of 31.2.
Looking at the average for first births, Ireland is at 31.6 – up from 26 in the mid-1980s – compared with the EU average at 29.8. The latest Central Statistics Office figures show that the Irish figures have not changed much in the meantime.
But the interesting thing in Ireland is that, despite a late start, Irish mothers tend to “catch up” with those elsewhere in Europe. On current trends, women in Ireland have, on average, 1.5 children (this is called the fertility rate), compared with the EU average of 1.38.
Ireland, along with Denmark, Germany, Portugal, Sweden and some others, is part of a group of EU countries where both the total fertility rate and the average age of women at the birth of their first child were above the EU average. So, what is going on?
1. Why are family sizes changing?
Over a long period of time as countries got richer, families tended to shrink in size. In the EU, there were 6.8 million births annually in the mid-1960s compared with 3.67 million in 2023. In Ireland annual birth numbers were in the high 60,000s for many years from the 1960s to 2000 – they did rise at times, with peaks of about 75,000 in 1980 and again in 2009. By 2024 total births fell to 54,000, despite Ireland having a much higher population level now.
Traditional economic theories were based on higher incomes and longer-term economic development generally leading to fewer children. Before industrialisation, women in many countries had five or more children. Part of the reason was economic – children often helped on a family farm or with chores. Elevated rates of infant mortality were another factor. As countries got richer, family sizes shrank – and, within countries, richer families tended to have fewer children.
Economists tried to rationalise this. They speculated that as incomes rose and families got richer, they wanted to invest more in their children – particularly in education – and so decided to have smaller families and focus their resources.
The other explanation was more women entering the workforce – a trend that accelerated internationally in the 1950s though later in Ireland – and the costs and complications of childcare that they faced.
In more recent years, the trends have changed. The relationship between income levels – at a national or family level – and fertility and family size have broken down. So, in many cases, have those that showed an inverse relationship between fertility and women in the workforce. It is clear that other factors are at play, with significant differences across countries with similar income levels.
More modern theories tend to focus on the compatibility of family and career – where policies vary from country to country and business to business. The availability and cost of childcare is, of course, crucial. Where work or having a child was, in the past, seen as a choice for women, increasingly the two are now combined, even if a “motherhood penalty” still applies to many women’s careers, lowering lifelong earnings.
2. What makes Ireland different?
Internationally, the rise in childbirth ages is attributed to a mix of social and economic factors – later marriages or “settling down” with a partner, a decision by women to stay in education longer and to become more established in their careers before having a family, the high cost of childcare and the options offered by better medical and fertility treatment.
What is different here? The relatively older age of childbirth in Ireland is likely to reflect, at least in part, the difficulty in renting or buying a home. Your parents’ box bedroom is not a good place to raise a child. Rentals, the traditional first step for many, are particularly expensive and in short supply in Ireland. The average age of buying a first home has risen to 35-36 years, while the share of first-time borrowers aged over 35 is now not far off half, up from less than one in five in 2004.
Back then, six out of every 10 first-time buyers was under the age of 30: now it is, at most, two in 10. As house prices rose ahead of wage inflation, buyers have had to delay their purchase until they were older and higher up the income ladder. It is a fair bet that this has also altered their decision on when to have children. This is an EU-wide problem, but is particularly acute here.
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It is impossible to separate the push and pull factors leading to later motherhood and separate the economic and social factors. But what is clear is that necessity and choice have been pushing in the same direction. The average age of a mother giving birth in the second quarter of this year was 33.2 compared with 30.7 in the same period in 2015 and 28.5 in 2004
3. What are the policy implications?
As they are across the world, fertility rates in Ireland are falling. The annual birth rate is about 10 per 1,000 of population compared with 14.5 a decade earlier. Even with a higher population, the total number of births is falling.
The fertility rate – the number of children a woman between 15 and 29 would be expected to have on current trends – is, at 1.5, above the EU average but below the 2.1 that is estimated to be the level required to keep the population constant in the long term, without net migration into the State. In the mid-1960s the fertility rate was more than four, illustrating the scale of social and economic change.
Falling birth rates mean the population is ageing, leading to additional spending of €2 billion to €3 billion a year according to the Department of Finance and the burden on State finances is expected to grow. Ireland is one of the younger countries in the EU in terms of its population, but is ageing fast. Official forecasts see fertility continuing to fall – to 1.3 by 2037. Inward migration will be needed to provide people to fill available jobs.
Anti-migration campaigners lament the falling level of childbirth and some call for State policies to combat this. So-called natalist policies have a mixed and, at times, controversial record. But most governments are pursuing “family-friendly” policies – offering families tax relief, subsidised childcare and other supports.
Part of the rationale is to support families who decide to have children through policies such as child-related payments and childcare. When fertility rates fall below 1.3, it risks a sharp long-term fall in population.
The question for governments is how much influence they can have and how much of the change is due to powerful social trends. Irish fertility rates have stabilised somewhat over the last few years, though international trends continue to point generally downwards. The breaking-down of the traditional relationship between income levels and fertility, however, does mean the future of the vital metric of fertility remains unpredictable.