NORFOLK — Economists at Old Dominion University’s Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy warned one year ago that policies from President Donald Trump’s administration could kneecap the economy.

A year later, those same economists say the warning has come true for Virginia and Hampton Roads. In 2025, federal and private sector jobs disappeared, tariffs have adversely impacted Port of Virginia traffic and international migration has declined.

“Undoubtedly, Virginia’s economic growth was lower in 2025 due to reductions in federal civilian employment, higher tariffs and policy uncertainty,” said ODU economist Bob McNab at an economic forecast discussion held Wednesday.

Hampton Roads lost around 6,500 federal civilian jobs by November 2025 compared to 12 months prior, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data analyzed by Dragas Center. Virginia lost about 23,500 federal civilian jobs during the same time period.

Those losses reverberated to other industries connected to the federal workforce, according to the economists. During the same time period, Hampton Roads lost around 3,800 manufacturing jobs — jobs Trump hoped his tariff policies would entice back to the United States — plus 1,400 leisure and hospitality jobs and 500 retail jobs.

Overall, individual employment in Hampton Roads declined 2.9%, from 857,301 to 832,810, from January to November 2025, according to seasonally-adjusted data analyzed by the Dragas Center.

Hampton Roads lost more than 6,000 federal civilian jobs in 2025, report finds

Trump tariffs also negatively impacted traffic at the Port of Virginia, fellow ODU economist Vinod Agarwal said. The total number of 20-foot equivalent units that moved through the port fell around 8.1% in 2025, to about 3.24 million TEUs, when compared to the same point in 2024, according to the most recent Port of Virginia shipping data.

“2025 was not a good year for the Port of Virginia, regardless of which way you look at it,” Agarwal said.

Pending action from the U.S. Supreme Court, Agarwal said tariff costs would eventually begin to be passed on to consumers. So far, many companies have decreased profit margins rather than raise prices, but Agarwal said that strategy was not sustainable in the long term.

Lastly, Agarwal said Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement and other policies have caused significantly fewer international travelers to visit the U.S. in 2025 and thousands fewer international students to enter the country.

If fewer international students enter the country and fewer stick around, Agarwal said the trends could cause Hampton Roads’ population to decline, because international migration made up the bulk of the region’s population growth during the past several years. International student workers, who travel on J-1 visas, fill integral roles in the region’s economy during the summer months.

McNab estimated the U.S. real gross domestic product would grow by 2% in 2026. Real GDP is the value of the goods and services produced and adjusted by inflation. Agarwal predicted the Hampton Roads economy would continue to slow, and said real GDP would grow by just 0.5% in 2026. For comparison, the region’s GDP grew 1% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2024, according to the Dragas Center.

Trevor Metcalfe, 757-222-5345, trevor.metcalfe@pilotonline.com