Organized in partnership with Waseda University and National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute in Singapore, “Toward a New Order in MENA Regional Geopolitics: What’s Next for the Region’s Geopolitical Equilibrium?” will explore the new alignments, rivalries, and geopolitical structures emerging in the Middle East new order over a two-day workshop.
Synopsis
The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack and subsequent regional upheaval have profoundly reshaped the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape. Iran’s deterrence has eroded; Israel has emerged more hegemonic than at any time in recent decades; and the long-standing strategic order is under strain. The resulting flux raises a central question: What comes next for the region, and for its relationships with Asia?
Iran now faces its gravest vulnerabilities since 1979, including weakened regional networks, domestic pressures, climate challenges, and a looming succession crisis. Meanwhile, Gulf Arab states — especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE — whose ambitious Vision projects require stability, must balance engagement with Israel against rising concerns over Tel Aviv’s power projection. Meanwhile, the Saudi-UAE rivalry has broken out into the open, complicating assumptions of Gulf alignment. Beyond Israel-Iran dynamics, Turkey, with its Islamic, security, and economic ambitions, is recalibrating its strategic posture.
The United States, for its part, now frames the Middle East in transactional terms. While Washington insists it will prevent an adversary from dominating the region, its strategic focus lies elsewhere. The interplay with Venezuela’s re-emerging energy relevance only reinforces questions about the Middle East’s centrality in US global planning.
In Asia, interest is uneven. China will remain an important economic actor, but its willingness to assume political or security burdens remains unclear. Japan and South Korea show limited appetite for sustained strategic involvement.
South-east Asia’s responses differ: Indonesia’s political recalibrations, Malaysia’s role within political-Islam alignments, and Singapore’s tightening rhetorical balance on Israel all show how the shifting landscape reverberates into domestic politics, but with caution rather than enthusiasm. Overall, Asia is not yet a strategic focus for the Middle East, China aside.
Against this backdrop, the workshop will interrogate:
What new alignments, rivalries, and geopolitical structures are emerging, and how should we understand the coming regional order?