For the first time since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia is struggling to find enough buyers for its crude oil and is sending more tankers across the Suez Canal with no fixed destination. Pressure from the US has scared away many Indian buyers — some of Russia’s most reliable customers until recently — who are now busy lining up alternatives. Buyers in Turkey also have slowed purchases, leaving Russian crude exporters even more reliant on China. India for years has been vying with China to be Russia’s number one crude customer but has slashed its intake due to threats of “secondary tariffs” from Washington. Turkey, too, has for the past three years feasted on discounted Russian barrels, but has now cut imports to placate Washington as it tries to widen its net of suppliers. This leaves Russian suppliers more than ever dependent on the Chinese market. Port data shows several cargoes of Urals crude loaded in the Baltics that would normally have found a home in India or Turkey but are now heading to China. Buyers in China now account for 100% of the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (Espo) blend crude shipped out of Kozmino in Russia’s Far East; India, which regularly had been taking five to six Espo cargoes per month, stopped all such purchases in January. And more Chinese-owned oil tankers are now appearing at Russian ports. Most of them belong to the “shadow fleet” that, together with a network of obscure trading companies, has dominated the Russian oil trade for the past three years.
