In November, soon after taking office, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told parliament that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could constitute an existential threat to Japan and could warrant a military response. To China, which sees any commitment to supporting Taiwan as a provocation, these were fighting words. In response,Beijing stepped up military exercises near Japan, halted the imports of Japanese seafood, banned exports of dual-use goods—products that can be used for civilian and military purposes—to Japan, and advised its citizens not to travel there.
Takaichi’s comments are all the more worrying for China because Japan is undergoing a profound shift. Over the past four years, Tokyo has prepared itself to counter China’s coercive behavior by splurging on its armed forces, protecting its supply chains, and becoming more assertive in its neighborhood.
Washington has welcomed these moves—but its support of Tokyo in light of Beijing’s recent pressure campaign has been tepid to nonexistent. That is a mistake. The United States should capitalize on Japan’s newfound muscularity by building its Indo-Pacific strategy around a revitalized U.S.-Japanese alliance. The two countries should harmonize their defenses and, along with its regional partners Australia and India, coordinate industrial policy in sensitive sectors. If the United States fails to take advantage of this moment or sees Japan’s strength as a reason to pull away from the region, Washington will be in a much worse position to deter China from taking Taiwan or otherwise wreaking havoc in the Indo-Pacific.
Continue reading at Foreign Affairs.