The PRC’s crackdown on Hong Kong has been a “wake-up call” for some in Taiwan, Maxwell continued.
“What you see now is a greater spirit within the Taiwan population, where they are resisting, and preparing to resist an invasion,” he stated. “Of course, they look to Ukraine and see how Ukrainian people have resisted, how they fought back. But of course, Taiwan is not going to be an easy place to invade.”
China itself may have already considered it a difficult proposition geographically to invade, and given that the PLA is made up of soldiers who were part of the PRC’s one-child policy, public sentiment for an invasion will be harder, Maxwell suggested.
“Every one of those soldiers is the end of a bloodline to a family back in the mainland, and so consider that,” he noted. “It is something I would hope that the Taiwanese would exploit to undermine popular support in China for any kind of military venture going into Taiwan.”
Meanwhile, the United States’ relationship with South Korea, under the long-standing Mutual Defense Treaty, is stable, Maxwell reports. “Our alliance is 72 years strong now, and our relationship, I think, remains on solid ground,” he said. “But as the political winds change in Seoul and in Washington, there can be friction. Certainly, our military alliance is strong. We are sustaining our exercises, maintaining a combined readiness posture, which, of course, contributes to deterrence, and is really job one on the Korean peninsula, to prevent war.”
From a technology point of view, the South Korean military, which is now the fifth most powerful in the world, is leveraging high-end military equipment, tanks and artillery from its defense industries, Maxwell shared.
“And of course, South Korea backfilled all the 155 ammunition that we sent to Ukraine—they replenished our stocks here in the United States,” he added. “They are, of course, buying cutting-edge technology from us, the F-35. They are a major shipbuilder. China, Japan and South Korea are the largest shipbuilders in the world.”
One of Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s policies is to help improve American shipbuilding, with the Korean country investing in the Philadelphia shipyards, with more possible deals to come, Maxwell said. The United States and Korea also agreed at the APEC Summit in Gyeongju, Korea, in October to support Korea building a nuclear-powered submarine and to help secure Korea’s right to reprocessing nuclear fuel and develop nuclear enrichment capabilities, “at peaceful levels,” Maxwell cited.
On an economic level, South Korea is also intertwined with the United States, with South Korea’s large direct investments into the U.S., such as information technology factories—including Samsung—and automobile manufacturing, including electric vehicles and batteries, Maxwell said.
He warned that any attack on South Korea by adversary North Korea would greatly impact several East Asian countries, as well as China and the United States, to a lesser extent.
“If there was a war, it would devastate the economies of South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, and it would affect China, and if there is a regime collapse, the same thing could happen,” Maxwell warned.
North Korea, itself, is undergoing instability, the foreign policy expert noted, asking, “We tend not to look at the problems that are going on inside North Korea. We tend to look at the nuclear weapons, the missile threats, the threat of war, but also there is a tremendous threat of internal instability inside North Korea.”
Maxwell also warned about the collusion of the so-called “Dark Quad,” China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. “The collaboration between these four powers is really troubling,” he said. Congress is taking some steps, starting with a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act that calls for interagency efforts to disrupt activities of the Dark Quad.
In Japan, the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, took office last October and is a disciple of Shinzo Abe, the country’s longest-serving prime minister of nine years, who was assassinated in 2022. So far, Takaichi has taken a hardline stance against the People’s Republic of China, Maxwell explained.
This has angered the PRC. Xi Jinping, the PRC’s president, told Chinese citizens in November to stop their leisure, business and student travel to Japan in retaliation to Takaichi. One of the PRC’s diplomats to Japan, Xue Jian, threatened to behead Takaichi after she advised the Japanese Parliament in November that any Chinese military blockade of Taiwan would create a need for Japan to defend itself and deploy its Japanese Defense Forces, given the proximity of Japan to Taiwan and the Strait, Maxwell said.
The defense of Taiwan is key to Japan’s security, Takaichi has said, and Japan is prepared to support Taiwan.
“She has started off really quickly standing up to China,” Maxwell noted. “I think she is going to continue to build up the Japanese military, which is very formidable. They’ve got challenges with their pacifist constitution, but they have said that the defense of Taiwan is key to Japan’s security, and that they will contribute to the defense of Taiwan. I think they are making some pretty bold statements and actions by developing their military capabilities.”
Lastly, Maxwell also advised that the United States figure out its dual portion forces, with forces in Japan that are apportioned to the defense of Korea, versus the forces needed for Taiwan.
“That has to be adjudicated,” he said. “Our traditional boundary lines may no longer be practical. We really have to think about the overlapping influence of different countries. We can’t put China in one combatant command or in another, because China not only operates in Asia, in the Indo-Pacific, but around the world as well. We have got to think new about new ways to organize for our national security.”