Jan 31, 2026
IndexBox has just published a new report: United Kingdom – Refined Palm Oil – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
The UK refined palm oil market saw a fifth consecutive annual decline in consumption in 2024, falling to 466K tons, with a market value of $767M. Domestic production also decreased slightly to 320K tons. Imports fell significantly to 167K tons, primarily sourced from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea, while exports surged 197% to 21K tons, mainly to Ireland. The market is forecast for modest growth, with volume projected to reach 483K tons (CAGR +0.3%) and value $937M (CAGR +1.8%) by 2035.
Key Findings
UK refined palm oil consumption declined for the fifth straight year in 2024 to 466K tons, down from a 2019 peak of 662K tonsThe market is forecast for slow growth to 483K tons by 2035, a volume CAGR of +0.3%, with value projected to reach $937M (CAGR +1.8%)Imports fell sharply by -11.9% in 2024 to 167K tons, with Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea as the top suppliersExports surged dramatically by 197% in 2024 to 21K tons, with Ireland as the dominant destination, taking 86% of the totalAverage import prices rose to $1,586 per ton in 2024, with Spain and Germany commanding the highest prices among major suppliersMarket Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for refined palm oil in the UK, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 483K tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $937M (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionUnited Kingdom’s Consumption of Refined Palm Oil
In 2024, consumption of refined palm oil decreased by -8.2% to 466K tons, falling for the fifth consecutive year after three years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, consumption reached the maximum volume at 662K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.
The size of the refined palm oil market in the UK fell slightly to $767M in 2024, waning by -2.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $930M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.
ProductionUnited Kingdom’s Production of Refined Palm Oil
In 2024, production of refined palm oil decreased by -1.7% to 320K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a four-year rising trend. In general, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 363K tons. From 2015 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, refined palm oil production contracted modestly to $539M in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the peak level at $621M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
ImportsUnited Kingdom’s Imports of Refined Palm Oil
In 2024, overseas purchases of refined palm oil decreased by -11.9% to 167K tons, falling for the fifth year in a row after four years of growth. Overall, imports, however, saw perceptible growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 70%. Imports peaked at 392K tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, refined palm oil imports totaled $264M in 2024. In general, imports, however, showed a buoyant increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 81%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at $320M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.
Imports By Country
Malaysia (41K tons), Indonesia (40K tons) and Papua New Guinea (33K tons) were the main suppliers of refined palm oil imports to the UK, with a combined 68% share of total imports. The Netherlands, Germany and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.
From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +24.7%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
In value terms, Malaysia ($63M), Indonesia ($61M) and Papua New Guinea ($45M) were the largest refined palm oil suppliers to the UK, together accounting for 64% of total imports. The Netherlands, Germany and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.
Spain, with a CAGR of +25.5%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
In 2024, the average refined palm oil import price amounted to $1,586 per ton, rising by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price enjoyed measured growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 65% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $1,613 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, import prices remained at a lower figure.
Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the highest price was recorded for prices from Spain ($2,058 per ton) and Germany ($1,786 per ton), while the price for Papua New Guinea ($1,372 per ton) and Malaysia ($1,522 per ton) were amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+5.6%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsUnited Kingdom’s Exports of Refined Palm Oil
For the third consecutive year, the UK recorded growth in overseas shipments of refined palm oil, which increased by 197% to 21K tons in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a slight downturn. The exports peaked at 31K tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.
In value terms, refined palm oil exports surged to $35M in 2024. Overall, exports, however, showed a perceptible curtailment. The exports peaked at $45M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.
Exports By Country
Ireland (18K tons) was the main destination for refined palm oil exports from the UK, with a 86% share of total exports. Moreover, refined palm oil exports to Ireland exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, the Netherlands (903 tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Belgium (268 tons), with a 1.3% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume to Ireland was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+4.9% per year) and Belgium (+29.5% per year).
In value terms, Ireland ($30M) remains the key foreign market for refined palm oil exports from the UK, comprising 85% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Netherlands ($1.6M), with a 4.4% share of total exports. It was followed by Belgium, with a 1.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value to Ireland was relatively modest. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Netherlands (+6.1% per year) and Belgium (+26.5% per year).
Export Prices By Country
The average refined palm oil export price stood at $1,720 per ton in 2024, surging by 1.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 36% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $2,089 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.
Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Poland ($4,918 per ton), while the average price for exports to Ireland ($1,710 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Poland (+8.5%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.
This report provides a comprehensive view of the refined palm oil industry in the United Kingdom, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.
Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the refined palm oil landscape in the United Kingdom.
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Key findings
Domestic demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking local supply to imports and exports.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating a distinct national cost curve.
Market concentration varies by segment, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned within the country.
Report scope
The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for the United Kingdom. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.
Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverageProdcom 10415700 – Refined palm oil and its fractions (excluding chemically modified)Country coverageCountry profile and benchmarks
This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for the United Kingdom. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.
Methodology
The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.
International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation
All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.
Forecasts to 2035
The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links refined palm oil demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in the United Kingdom.
Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing companies
Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.
Price analysis and trade dynamics
Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.
Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants
Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.
Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report
Quantify domestic demand and identify the most attractive segments
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target destinations
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against leading competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of refined palm oil dynamics in the United Kingdom.
FAQ
What is included in the refined palm oil market in the United Kingdom?
The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.
How are the forecasts to 2035 built?
The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.
Does the report cover prices and margins?
Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.
Which benchmarks are included?
The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for the United Kingdom.
Can this report support market entry decisions?
Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.