Jan 30, 2026
Geopolitical tension around Iran continues to underpin prices by lifting the risk premium, even without actual disruptions, while producer discipline and recent weather related outages are limiting downside, according to an analysis referenced by a Rigzone article. At the same time, economic data points to slowing but resilient demand, keeping oil supported as both a growth-sensitive asset and a hedge.
Looking at the near term, the analysis states labor market data “is the key trigger.” “Weaker jobs data would support oil via a softer dollar but raise demand concerns, while stronger data may pressure prices initially yet reinforce demand expectations,” the report warns. “Until either geopolitics or macro data clearly dominates, oil is likely to remain range-bound but firm, with sharp reactions to headlines and data surprises.”
Refining spreads have shown specific movements. “The NYMEX heating oil-WTI spread has stabilized between $36-38 per barrel over the week, while the ICE gasoil-Brent spread pushed above $25 per barrel on 21 January and is currently trading around $23 per barrel,” an analyst noted. “We expect these cracks to remain sensitive to refining throughput-recovery timelines.”
A Standard Chartered report projected that the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $63.50 per barrel in 2026 and $67.00 per barrel in 2027. This commodity averaged $68.50 per barrel in 2025, the report showed. A quarterly breakdown forecast the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $62.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $63.00 per barrel in the second quarter, $64.00 per barrel in the third quarter, $64.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $66.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027.
Commenting on market drivers, the analysis added, “Geopolitical rhetoric remains loud, but pricing continues to respond primarily to tangible constraints on supply, trade, and policy.” “Unless escalation moves from words to actions, volatility is likely to remain concentrated in specific pockets – precious metals, weather-exposed energy markets, and geopolitically sensitive crude flows – rather than across the commodity complex as a whole.”
Recent weather has been a significant factor. “The scope of this winter storm was extraordinary,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. “What sets this storm apart is not just the snow and ice, but how widespread the disruption has been across transportation, energy, commerce, and daily life,” he added. “The extreme cold pouring in behind the storm dramatically increases risks and slows recovery in many of the hardest-hit areas.” AccuWeather highlighted that the winter storm impacted more than 200 million people across more than two dozen states.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
This report provides a comprehensive view of the crude oil industry in Iran, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the national value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.
Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between domestic suppliers and international partners. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the crude oil landscape in Iran.
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Key findings
Domestic demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking local supply to imports and exports.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating a distinct national cost curve.
Market concentration varies by segment, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned within the country.
Report scope
The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics for Iran. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts.
Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions
Product coverageCountry coverageCountry profile and benchmarks
This report provides a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for Iran. The profile highlights demand structure and trade position, enabling benchmarking against regional and global peers.
Methodology
The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.
International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation
All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.
Forecasts to 2035
The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links crude oil demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts in Iran.
Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing companies
Each projection is built from national historical patterns and the broader regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.
Price analysis and trade dynamics
Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.
Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions
Profiles of market participants
Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.
Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context
How to use this report
Quantify domestic demand and identify the most attractive segments
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target destinations
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against leading competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of crude oil dynamics in Iran.
FAQ
What is included in the crude oil market in Iran?
The market size aggregates consumption and trade data, presented in both value and volume terms.
How are the forecasts to 2035 built?
The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.
Does the report cover prices and margins?
Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.
Which benchmarks are included?
The report benchmarks market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators for Iran.
Can this report support market entry decisions?
Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.