ROCHESTER — There may never have been a more topsy-turvy month in Minnesota politics than January.
Judge for yourself. Not too long ago, Republicans looked on a glide path to reclaim the governor’s office, a trophy that has eluded the party’s grasp for two decades. The ground being laid for a Republican resurgence was fueled by a drumbeat of news stories about fraud in state programs — and the enormous sums squandered — potentially as much as $9 billion.
DFL Gov. Tim Walz, who last year was an election away from being a
heartbeat away from being president,
limped off the political stage, his bid for a
fatally wounded by the fraud scandal.
The state’s politics appeared poised for a rightward shift. It seemed to be only a matter of time.
And January happened and the table got upended.
The administration of President Donald Trump sent
3,000 federal border patrol agents
into Minnesota. Its “turn and burn” tactics sparked civil unrest and complaints from frightened immigrant communities.
by federal agents.
And like a well-shaken Etch A Sketch, everything is different.
The whiplash prompted one of the GOP candidates,
to drop his bid for governor. On his way out, he complained that “the national Republicans have made it nearly impossible for a Republican to win a statewide election in Minnesota.”
Into the breach created by Walz’s departure has stepped
a more moderate Democrat who announced her candidacy on Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026.
“There’s a lot of churn in state politics right now, which means there’s a heavy fog ahead,” said Steven Schier, a political analyst. “If ICE is as big an issue in October as it is now, Republicans are in trouble. No question. We just don’t know if that’s going to be true.”
Schier notes how today’s information environment changes rapidly. Memories are short. New news quickly swallows up the old. Only five months ago the lives of two children, Fletcher Merkel and Harper Moyski, were claimed in a mass shooting at the
in Minneapolis. Yet it feels as if the tragedy happened a decade ago.
It’s hard to imagine the convulsive month of January ever being forgotten.
An historical equivalent, when the fortunes of one party have changed so dramatically, would be hard to find. Minnesota has never seen the
that has so far been documented. And yet never before have federal patrol agents been a presence in Minnesota like they have been in the last month, leading to the deaths of two people.
“It’s a unicorn stampede,” Schier said.
And true to form, its political leaders are talking about things as if they occupy two different worlds. DFLers are focused on the loss of due process and civil rights, the trauma and fear experienced by immigrant communities, and how deportation tactics have become a blunt instrument, not a surgical one.
Republicans have cast the controversy as failure on the part of DFL leaders and law enforcement officials to coordinate with federal officials. Noting that federal agents are present in other states yet haven’t sparked the kind of resistance seen in Minnesota, GOP Rep. Pam Altendorf compared Minnesota to an “unruly child.”
If the ICE operations are a campaign issue in the fall (and it’s hard to imagine them not being one), Republican candidates will have to talk about them in a way that’s advantageous. And that could be a challenge.
“That’s going to be hard. They certainly can,” Schier said. “There are two Minnesotas, not one. What works in one Minnesota doesn’t work in the other. Right now, both parties are talking to their base, which means they’re doing their best to lose the election.”
White House border czar Tom Homan said he has ordered immigration authorities to work on an eventual
for law enforcement in Minnesota. He acknowledged that mistakes had been made. He also called on local leaders to work together with federal agents to “tone down the dangerous rhetoric.”
“I’m not here because the federal government has carried out its mission perfectly,” Homan said at a press conference in Minneapolis.
Bill Kuisle, a former GOP state representative and one-time candidate for lieutenant governor, said Republicans’ electoral prospects have suffered from all the attention focused on ICE operations. Whereas Republicans were in a winning position before the federal surge, he now rates their chances at around 50-50.
Like many Republican leaders, he expresses sympathy for federal agents on the ground who were given a tough task.
“You have people blowing whistles and coming up to you in all this. There’s still no excuse for the shooting. Don’t get me wrong,” Kuisle said. “But you’re putting people on edge, and the protesters know they’re putting these ICE agents on edge.”
Kuisle doesn’t expect the issue to go away. Kuisle noted that he recently had lunch with
a strong contender for GOP endorsement for governor. The two discussed the ICE operations and the civil unrest it has created and what Qualls should do.
“I didn’t have a clear answer for him, just because of the agitation that’s going on out there,” Kuisle said. “It’s never been seen before.”
