Editor’s note: This story was originally published in 2019 and updated January 2026.
Learn about the origins of Groundhog Day, how to watch Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction, and why the groundhog is accompanied by men wearing tuxedos and top hats.
Back to the basics. When is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day is always Feb. 2, about halfway through winter.
This year, that falls on a Monday.
The main event happens at sunrise. That is when Inner Circle club members, wearing black top hats, lift the groundhog named Phil into the air. They read off a proclamation either: stating that Phil saw his shadow and thus there will be six more weeks of winter, or stating that he didn’t see his shadow and thus there will be an early spring.
How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions?
Organizers say Phil is never wrong. Instead, they say, sometimes the president of the group messes up the translation of what Phil is saying.
Meteorologists disagree. Stormfax Almanac says Phil’s prognostications have been correct about 39% of the time.
Most of the time, based on the records Stormfax has available, Phil has seen his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter. The last time he didn’t was in 2024.
How did the holiday start?
Here’s what the organizers say:
The holiday is tied to an old Christian holiday, Candlemas Day, when people would bring candles to a church to have them blessed.
The holiday evolved with time, and then Germans introduced an animal — a hedgehog — into the tradition.
As German settlers came to the United States, the tradition followed. For want of a hedgehog, they instead used a groundhog.
The first official weather forecast involving a Punxsutawney groundhog at Gobbler’s Knob happened on Feb. 2, 1887.
Lancaster County prognosticators
Phil isn’t the only groundhog in the commonwealth that knows how to predict the weather. Lancaster has quite a few weather predicting groundhogs:
Elliott and Lilly
Mount Joy Minnie
M.T. Parker
Octoraro Orphie
How can I watch?
Here’s one livestream that will be available: visitpa.com/live-stream-phils-prediction.
And PCN says it will have live coverage on cable and on its app.
What if I want to visit in person?
The Gobbler’s Knob celebration happens just outside Punxsutawney. The small borough of about 5,800 people is in Jefferson County, about 80 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.
Many other events take place before and after the groundhog prediction, including an art show, chainsaw carving, campfire style sing-along and banquet.
The celebration at Gobbler’s Knob begins at 3 a.m. with music and dancing before the groundhog prediction around dawn.
Ron Ploucha, an Inner Circle member, recommends people arrive in Punxsutawney no later than 4:30 a.m. so they can take one of the shuttles to Gobbler’s Knob.
If you plan on attending, organizers say you should dress warmly and they advise against bringing small children.
The groundhog’s prediction at Gobbler’s Knob is free to attend.
Finding a place to stay is one of the biggest challenges. But Ploucha says a lot of people do the trip in one day.
Why is the holiday such a big deal?
There are two common explanations, and they aren’t mutually exclusive.
One is that winter in Pennsylvania feels long and people are looking for something to break up that monotony.
There is some science behind this idea. Groundhog Day is not the only holiday that falls in the middle of a season. In the northern hemisphere, autumn has Halloween on Oct. 31. Spring has Labor Day on May 1, which is a celebration of workers in many parts of the world. And summer has Lammas in the beginning of August to celebrate the harvest.
The second explanation has to do with the 1993 movie “Groundhog Day.”
How big of a deal was the Bill Murray movie?
Apparently a really big one. In the film, a cranky Pittsburgh weatherman is sent to Punxsutawney to cover the holiday tradition. Bad weather prevents him from leaving, and he gets stuck in a time loop, forced to relive the same day over and over. He’s the only one who remembers the previous iterations of that day.
In 2014, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette published the article “Movie transformed Punxsutawney’s small-town tradition into world attraction.” The article noted that, before the 1993 film, the number of visitors averaged in the hundreds. But the town saw its first 30,000-plus visitors after the film’s release.
The day of the week and weather also influence turnout at this annual event. This Monday, the weather in Punxsutawney is expected to be cold. It is forecast to start out around 16 degrees in the morning and reach a high of about 22 during the day, with low clouds and some sun, according to AccuWeather.com.
These days, a smaller crowd is in the 8,000 to 10,000 range, and a large crowd is in the 30,000 to 40,000 range, Ploucha said.
Can I see spots from the Bill Murray movie?
Sure! Just not in Pennsylvania.
So where are those spots?
Most of the movie was filmed in Woodstock, Illinois — about 60 miles northwest of Chicago.
In 2017, WITF and PA Post digital manager Lisa Wardle traveled to the Illinois town and wrote about the landmarks, including the street where Ned gets punched.
Where can I find other “Groundhog Day”/time loop type stories?
A lot of science fiction shows and movies have played with the idea.
“The Twilight Zone” had an episode about a man stuck in a time loop from the moment of his conviction for murder to his execution.
And a season six episode of “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” features a section in which the main character is stuck in a time loop, trying to please a customer at a magic shop while also fighting off a mummy hand.
Where can I find other regular groundhog/nontime loop stories?
Over the years, several towns have adopted their own Groundhog Day traditions.
Sometimes they used a live groundhog to make a prediction. Other times, they used a dead and stuffed one.
How long do groundhogs live?
Groundhogs typically live up to six years in the wild, although they can live longer in captivity.
Punxsutawney organizers say the same groundhog has been there for every celebration since the 1880s. They claim that every summer he drinks an “elixir of life” that adds seven years onto his life.
We’ll leave it up to you to decide what to believe.
Who are those men in the black top hats?
Those 15 men are members of the Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle. They are responsible for planning the event and caring for Phil.
Ploucha got involved back in the 1990s. At the time, he was a high school teacher and worked on a kids’ quiz show broadcast on a local cable channel.
The Inner Circle club member responsible for entertaining at the Knob knew the holiday was growing in popularity, so he turned to Ploucha for help.
“He saw what I could do on live television, and that’s how I got in,” Ploucha said in 2019. “And I’ve been there ever since.”
Why do they wear black top hats and tuxedos?
Punxsutawney Phil was named after a king, Ploucha said.
“We consider Phil to be royalty,” Ploucha said. “Phil is the most famous animal in the world.”
And the top hat is a symbol of royalty.
“And then, of course, if you’re going to wear a top hat, you’ve got to wear a tuxedo,” Ploucha said.
Where else can I see Phil?
The groundhog occasionally travels outside of Punxsutawney.
When Ploucha served as Phil’s handler, he took the groundhog to a lot of events, including weddings.
A large crowd usually forms around the groundhog at the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex in Harrisburg.
Leo Fiester, 62, and Janet Scott, from Sullivan County in northern Pennsylvania, searched for the groundhog inside the complex in 2019.
“We looked everywhere,” Scott said.
“The information people didn’t know he was even here. I said, ‘We’re going to find him,’” Fiester said.
Fiester has been to the annual Pennsylvania Farm Show dozens of times, he said.