If global heating reaches the 2-degree-Celsius mark, we can expect living conditions to change dramatically, according to the broad scientific consensus. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly called for countries to decarbonise and shift to renewable energy to control global warming in the coming decades before it causes irreparable damage. However, with recent forecasts suggesting that several countries are going to fall short of their climate pledges, it is important to understand what that could mean for the world. 

The Paris Agreement, signed by most countries in 2015, aims to limit global warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a target established to keep warming at or below 1.5°C. The aims of the agreement would only be missed if that level of temperature increase is sustained over a couple of decades. Driven by a strong El Niño weather pattern, 2024 was the first single year to record temperatures above the 1.5°C. threshold. 

Leon Hermanson at the United Kingdom’s national meteorological service, the Met Office, explained, “Where we were in 2015 with 1.5°C is where we are now with 2°C… If things continue the way they are, the chance of that will also increase very steeply.”

Meanwhile, Chris Hewitt at the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation believes there is still a window of opportunity to avoid some of the most dangerous effects of climate change. Achieving this, however, will require countries to significantly and rapidly cut emissions, to hold temperatures as close to the 1.5°C threshold as possible. “Every fraction of a degree matters,” said Hewitt.

According to a study published in Nature Sustainability in January, the number of people living in extreme heat will more than double by the mid-century if global heating hits the 2-degree-Celsius mark. This will increase the global demand for air conditioners, driving up the demand for power and leading to rising consumer energy bills.

The study is the most extensive assessment of the anticipated impact of a meaningful rise in temperature over the coming decades. It suggests that some areas of the world, such as the tropics and the southern hemisphere, will be more affected than others. However, even countries in the northern hemisphere are expected to feel the change and will likely find it hard to adapt without the infrastructure required to deal with hotter temperatures.

If the world heats by 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, the study suggests the number of people experiencing extreme heat will increase from 1.54 billion people (equivalent to 23 percent of the global population in 2010) to 3.79 billion (roughly 41 percent of the world’s population in 2050). The majority of people affected will be in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and the Philippines. However, the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil are expected to experience the biggest rise in temperature. 

The study suggested that the global shift will commence rapidly once the world hits the 1.5-degree warming mark, meaning that countries must already be prepared to adapt their infrastructure, energy sector, and health systems to prepare for the impact of this heating. 

One of the paper’s authors, Radhika Khosla, stated, “This is a really core finding because it tells us that we need to act much earlier in supporting measures for adaptation and mitigation.” Khosla added that “overshooting 1.5 °C of warming will have an unprecedented impact on everything from education and health to migration and farming. Net-zero sustainable development remains the only established path to reversing this trend for ever hotter days. It is imperative that politicians regain the initiative towards it.”

Khosla highlighted the lack of preparedness, particularly in the global north, where governments may assume that they have more time to prepare for the shift. In the United Kingdom, for example, much of the infrastructure is old and inefficient, mainly designed to cope with cold temperatures.

Brits have become acutely aware of this during the recent summer heatwaves, as houses are unprepared for the 30+ Celsius temperatures. The rapid rise in temperatures could also lead the U.K. and other northern countries to turn to fossil fuels, such as coal-fired power plants, to meet the energy demand, as they gradually ramp up their renewable energy capacity.

In addition to people living in hotter conditions, the rising global temperature is expected to have a wide range of repercussions. Surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold will lead to more frequent severe weather events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones. It could also shift climate patterns, such as rainfall and ocean currents. It will also lead to sea levels rising and will harm the world’s ecosystems. 

Despite repeated warnings from the IEA and climate scientists worldwide, we are well on our way to surpassing the 1.5 °C global warming threshold in the coming years, which will have a significant impact on human life and environmental health. The new study suggests just how far-reaching the temperature change could be, with people in countries in both the northern and southern hemispheres expected to feel the effects.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

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