Why Minnesota May Crash the Red Wall – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, February 01, 2026

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

President Donald Trump PHOTO: White House feed

The violence continues in Minnesota over the ICE presence. But it is becoming increasingly divisive politically, and that could have huge repercussions for the upcoming midterm elections. And the rest of the Jeffrey Epstein Files were released. Let’s “brunch” on all of that and more this week.

“Unusual Arrests” – While clashes continue between protesters and ICE, the week ended with two notable arrests. Former CNN anchor Don Lemon was arrested, accused of disrupting a church service attended by ICE supporters. DOJ says it’s a federal civil rights violation to disrupt a religious service. Lemon says he did not disrupt but was there to cover it as an independent reporter. Lemon’s attorney Abbe Lowell said, “Don has been a journalist for 30 years, and his constitutionally protected work in Minneapolis was no different than what he has always done.” Meanwhile, a Minnesota man was arrested after spraying Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) in the face at an anti-ICE event. At first, it was suspected to be pepper spray but it turns out it was a non-harmful mix of water and apple cider vinegar. Still, assaulting a member of Congress is taken very seriously.

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“Pence is Pensive” – One of the most prominent Republicans who has come out critically is former Vice President Mike Pence. He posted a statement on X, saying, “In the wake of the tragic shooting that claimed the life of Alex Pretti this weekend, our prayers are with his family, the citizens of Minneapolis, and local, state, and federal law enforcement officers serving there. The images of this incident are deeply troubling, and a full and transparent investigation of this officer-involved shooting must take place immediately.” Pence said the rights of law enforcement must be balanced with the rights of citizens to assemble, protest the government, and bear arms.

“GOP Candidate for Minnesota Governor Drops Out” – Republican lawyer Chris Madel has dropped out of the race for Minnesota governor. On X, he said, “I cannot support the national Republicans’ stated retribution on the citizens of our state, nor can I count myself a member of a party that would do so.” He originally supported the ICE effort in his state but now calls it “an unmitigated disaster,” saying it had “expanded far beyond its stated focus on true public safety threats.” There are several other announced Republicans, and likely a crowded Democrat field since Gov. Tim Walz (D) Minnesota has declined to run for a third term. This issue will be critical to all candidates on both sides. Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) is among those running.

“Things Going from Bad to Worse” – Support for the White House-led Republican agenda is eroding. “My support for funding ICE remains the same,” said Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) Nebraska, a staunch Trump backer who is up for reelection. He added, “But we must also maintain our core values as a nation, including the right to protest and assemble.” Gov. Phil Scott (R) Vermont said, “At best, these federal immigration operations are a complete failure of coordination of acceptable public safety and law enforcement practices, training, and leadership.” He added, “At worst, it’s deliberate federal intimidation and incitement of American citizens.” And Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska, said federal agents do not “have carte blanche in carrying out their duties.” So, from the East Coast to the Heartland, to the West Coast, the GOP’s “Red Wall” is forming big cracks, and it could get worse.

“GOP Core Values are at Risk” – The irony here is that the reaction to the shootings is gutting three traditional party planks. First, Republicans always claimed to be the party of small government and getting rid of federal overreach. Remember their reaction when former President Joe Biden promised to hire 80,000 new IRS agents to spike the number of tax audits? The GOP went nuts. And Republicans are the big champions of the 2nd Amendment and gun owners’ rights. The victim in the second fatal shooting had a concealed carry permit, and his gun was tucked in his pants. He was not pointing it at anyone. Some 2nd Amendment advocates are stunned. Rep. Jeremy Faison (R) Tennessee, an ardent gun rights supporter, said on X, “Showing up at a protest is very American. Showing up with a weapon is very American.”

“More Missteps” — The White House is not being helped by its own inaccurate statements. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Pretti was “brandishing” a weapon and acted “violently” toward officers. White House Deputy Chief Stephen Miller called Pretti an “assassin.” All the videos made public so far contradict those words. Even the National Rifle Association, the NRA, came out with statements critical of the White House and ICE policies. The third issue is illegal immigration, which was the reason Trump was elected twice. Many in the public now believe he’s gone too far.

“Do the Political Math” – Here are the numbers: Democrats only need a net gain of four seats to control the U.S. Senate, and a net gain of only five seats to win the U.S. House. They are at the doorstep of a “palace coup,” and you are seeing evidence in almost every other state. A new poll by YouGov, done after the two Minnesota shootings, shows that 76 percent of Democrats and 19 percent of Republicans support completely abolishing ICE. This could be a real wedge issue in the midterms. A recent poll from Quinnipiac University shows that 57 percent of Americans disapprove of the ICE immigration strategy posed by the Trump administration. But White House Press Secretary Karolina Leavitt countered by saying, “The president supports the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding American citizens, absolutely.” Leavitt qualified that, adding, “when you are bearing arms and confronted by law enforcement, you are raising … the risk of force being used against you.” She’s walking the proverbial “political tightrope.”

“Trump Gets the Message” – By mid-week, it was announced that two ICE agents involved in Pretti’s death had been put on administrative leave. On Wednesday, Trump told reporters he wants a “very honorable and honest investigation” into Pretti’s killing. He added, “I want to see the investigation; I’m going to be watching over it. I want to see it myself.” Meanwhile, Homeland Security Secretary Noem says she will testify before Congress on the matter in March. It will be interesting to see whether they can reverse the self-inflicted political damage from this as we enter the primary season. Also, a federal civil rights investigation is also now underway in Pretti’s death.

“Shutdown, Slow Down” – There is now a tentative last-minute deal to prevent a government shutdown, at least for two weeks. The Minneapolis shootings also affected the government spending deadline negotiations. Democrats dug in their heels, wanting to strip out millions budgeted for the Department of Homeland Security, especially for ICE funding, which the department oversees. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) New York said, “The American people support law enforcement. They support border security. They do not support ICE terrorizing our streets and killing American citizens.” Of the deal President Trump said, “Republicans and Democrats have come together to get the vast majority of the government funded until September.” He urged members of both parties to cast a “much needed Bipartisan ‘YES’ vote.”

“And Then There is the Economy” – 2026 is not the year for bad economic news, with the coming elections. The Conference Board says the consumer confidence level plummeted by nearly ten points in January to 84.5 percent. That’s the lowest level since 2014 and lower than any year during the COVID pandemic. Respondents to the survey expressed great concerns about inflation, especially gas and grocery prices. The economy is the top issue in virtually every election cycle. Voters in 2026 are unlikely to deviate from that.

“Final Epstein Files?” – On Friday, the Department of Justice said it has released the final files pertaining to convicted sex traffickers Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell. The final batch contains three million pages, 2,000 videos, and 180 thousand images. So far, no smoking guns. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, a former Trump defense attorney said, “We did not protect President Trump. We didn’t protect – or not protect – anybody.” He says this will not mollify critics, noting, “There’s a hunger, or a thirst, for information that I don’t think will be satisfied by review of these documents.” He says all materials are now on the DOJ website.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a South Florida-based political writer and analyst who has covered news and politics all across the nation, including New England, for the past 48 years. Most recently, he was the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations covering West Virginia, its five neighboring states, and the entire Washington, DC media market. He remains a MINDSETTER™ Contributing Political Writer and Analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.

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