Trade War Skies: Understanding Trump’s 2026 Decertification Order on Canadian Aircraft

Published on
February 2, 2026

In the early morning hours of January 30, 2026, a single social media post sent shockwaves through the global aerospace industry. U.S. President Donald Trump, in a move that blended high-stakes trade negotiation with regulatory muscle, announced the “decertification” of all Canadian-manufactured aircraft. The declaration, aimed squarely at industry titan Bombardier and the Canadian government, initially threatened to ground thousands of planes across North America.

However, as the dust—and the winter snow—settled, a more nuanced reality emerged. Clarifications from White House officials and aviation experts suggest that while the rhetoric is sweeping, the operational reality focuses specifically on the future.

The Core of the Conflict: The Gulfstream Standoff

At the heart of this escalation is a “tit-for-tat” regulatory battle. President Trump alleged that Canada has “wrongfully, illegally, and steadfastly” refused to certify several models of U.S.-made Gulfstream jets—specifically the G500, G600, G700, and G800.

By framing the issue as a blockage of “Great American” technology, the administration justified its retaliation: the decertification of Bombardier’s Global Express family and “all aircraft made in Canada.” The message from the Oval Office was clear: if American jets can’t fly in Canada, Canadian jets won’t be authorized for sale in the United States.

What “Decertification” Actually Means in 2026

The initial panic among airlines—particularly regional carriers like SkyWest and Endeavor that rely on Canadian-built CRJ jets—was palpable. If every Canadian plane were grounded, the U.S. aviation system would essentially collapse.

Cooler heads have since clarified the scope. According to White House officials and industry analysts at Skift, the order applies only to new aircraft certifications, not the 5,400+ Canadian-built planes already in operation and registered in the U.S. For a Delta passenger on an Airbus A220 (originally a Bombardier design) or a corporate executive on a current Global 7500, your flight remains safe and legal.

The “decertification” is less a grounding order and more a “stop-work” order on future entries. It effectively halts the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) from granting new airworthiness certificates to Canadian planes rolling off assembly lines until the Gulfstream dispute is resolved.

The Economic Stakes: A 50% Tariff Looming

If decertification is the stick, the proposed 50% tariff is the heavy hammer. Trump warned that if Canada does not “immediately correct” the Gulfstream situation, a massive import duty will be slapped on all aircraft sold into the U.S. from Canada.

This move targets the very heart of the Canadian economy. Bombardier, based in Montreal, is a global leader in business aviation, but its umbilical cord is tied to the U.S. market. In 2024, nearly 64% of Bombardier’s sales came from American buyers. A 50% tariff would make these high-tech machines prohibitively expensive, potentially shifting the market toward U.S. or European competitors.

The Human Impact: Jobs on Both Sides of the Border

The tragedy of modern trade wars is that the borders are often blurred. While the targets are Canadian, the casualties are frequently American. Bombardier was quick to remind the public that it employs over 3,000 people across nine U.S. facilities and supports a supply chain of 2,800 American companies. From wings made in Texas to avionics in Iowa, a blow to Bombardier is a blow to the American worker.+1

Industry unions, including the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, have urged for a separation of safety regulation and political grievances. “You can’t weaponize the certification process,” noted union leaders, emphasizing that aviation safety should remain an independent pillar of global travel.

A System Under Strain

Experts like Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisory have labeled the prospect of politically motivated decertification a “transportation disaster.” Beyond the immediate trade spat, there is a fear of precedent. If the U.S. uses the FAA’s certification powers as a trade weapon, other nations may follow suit, creating a fractured global airspace where safety standards are dictated by diplomatic moods rather than engineering facts.

What Travelers Should Expect

For the average traveler, the immediate impact is minimal. Existing regional jet routes and narrow-body flights on the A220 are not being canceled. However, the long-term ripple effects could include:

Higher Ticket Prices: If regional airlines face higher costs for new planes or parts due to tariffs, those costs will eventually land in the passenger’s lap.Service Cuts to Small Hubs: If regional carriers cannot expand their fleets with newer, more efficient Canadian-made jets, smaller rural communities could see reduced flight frequencies.Conclusion: The Art of the Deal in the Air

As Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump continue their high-altitude game of chicken, the aerospace world is holding its breath. Whether this is a “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) moment—a negotiating tactic designed to force Canada’s hand—or a fundamental shift in aviation policy remains to be seen.

For now, the planes are still flying, but the horizon is clouded by the most significant cross-border trade tension in a generation.