The tanker markets have been shaped by geopolitics over the past year, more so than …trivial things like supply and demand. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson commented that “geopolitical developments dominated tanker markets last year, with a wave of sanctions primarily targeting Russia, secondary measures aimed at entities trading Russian and Iranian crude, the brief Israel-Iran conflict, Trump’s inauguration, US trade wars, and the US-China port-fee standoff among the key events. So far, this year is proving just as “eventful” as 2025”.
According to Gibson, “recent developments in Venezuela have come as a major surprise, triggering a sharp reset in the country’s crude flows. Exports have shifted away from Chinese independent refiners operating via dark tonnage towards mainstream vessels, with most volumes for now remaining within the Atlantic Basin. While the picture is still evolving, initial barrels are likely to be directed mainly towards the US market. This has already contributed towards a sharp rally in Aframax rates, which reached multi-year highs in recent weeks”.
“Tensions surrounding Iran are also re-igniting. Although domestic unrest appears to have eased, the US is notably increasing its military presence in the Middle East, in a broader projection of force against Iran. Iran’s nuclear programme remains at the core of the dispute, and Tehran has already warned of retaliation in the event of an attack. As discussed in our recent weekly report Trouble in Tehran, the trajectory of events remains highly uncertain. However, for mainstream tanker markets, the risks are clearly skewed towards higher volatility. Any strike on Iranian oil infrastructure, disruption to exports, or attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate and severe consequences for freight markets. A more structural shift would follow in the event of regime change. In addition, any military escalation between the US and Iran could reignite Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, with Houthi officials having recently issued fresh warnings”, the shipbroker said.
Source: Gibson Shipbrokers
Gibson added that “Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations are also ongoing. The latest trilateral talks were described as “constructive” but failed to deliver meaningful progress, with further discussions scheduled for February. Whilst a comprehensive settlement remains elusive, if a deal is eventually reached, it would have far-reaching implications for oil flows, prices, mainstream tanker demand, sanctions, dark fleet demand, asset prices for ageing tonnage and demolition levels. In contrast, a failure to reach a settlement would likely result in tighter direct sanctions and more robust secondary measures, which would inevitably cause further disruptions in freight markets and potentially drive additional shifts in trade flows. Recent tanker seizures linked to Russian trade by US authorities in the North Atlantic and by French forces in the Mediterranean highlight that risk of intervention is rising, moving into largely uncharted territory”.
“More broadly, increasingly direct and forceful policy actions by the Trump administration are adding another layer of uncertainty. The recent threat to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in response to potential Canada-China trade agreements is a clear example. Similarly, while Greenland-related tensions have subsided for now, they highlight potential risks to transatlantic coordination on trade, security, and sanctions enforcement”, Gibson mentioned.
Meanwhile, “US-China port fees have been paused for 12 months, but the outlook beyond this period remains highly uncertain. The issue may be used as leverage in future negotiations. Any renewed escalation would be particularly impactful for the VLCC segment, given that close to 40% of global VLCC trade is destined for China. While the US market is significant, nonetheless Chinese-owned or Chinese-operated tankers have plenty of alternative trading options across nearly all size groups. In conclusion, geopolitical forces are set to remain the dominant driver of tanker markets this year. With conflicts unresolved, sanctions evolving, and trade policies increasingly unpredictable, volatility is likely to persist. More than ever, freight markets are being shaped by political decisions rather than purely by supply-and-demand fundamentals”, Gibson concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide