Credit: William Bossen, Unsplash
In 2015, nearly every country in the world adopted the Paris Agreement, committing to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C (2°7F) of warming. This goal, ambitious in scope, reflects the scientific consensus that staying within 1.5°C would significantly reduce the worst impacts of climate change. However, limiting warming to this standard would require rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, a global shift away from fossil fuels, and stronger political commitment than has been shown so far.
The temperature threshold at the center of today’s climate debate traces back to the Paris Agreement, when governments and activists united around the goal of holding global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Youth movements and UN leaders, including Secretary-General António Guterres, have repeatedly called for urgent action to keep 1.5°C “within reach.” 2024 was the first full year on record in which the global average temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a 70% likelihood that the next five years will also average above this threshold, underscoring how rapidly the margin for action is shrinking.
Preventing that outcome requires a rapid global transformation of energy systems and a decisive shift away from fossil fuels. Global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 relative to 2019 levels and cut by around 60% by 2035; CO₂ emissions need to reach net zero by mid-century, with total GHGs net zero by the 2070s. Achieving these reductions demands a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, minimal reliance on unabated fossil technologies, deployment of carbon capture where necessary, and an end to fossil fuel subsidies, which alone could reduce emissions by up to 10% by 2030.
The burden of action also falls disproportionately on the world’s wealthiest individuals, corporations, and governments, whose emissions and influence far outweigh those of the average person. It has been estimated that the wealthiest 1% exhaust their 2026’s fair share of emissions in just ten days, and would need to slash their usage by 97% by the end of the decade to align with 1.5°C pathways. The richest 0.1% can exhaust their share in as little as three days. Research shows that governments could drastically slash carbon emissions and address inequality by targeting the highest emitters through policy and regulation.
Ultimately, the outcome will be shaped not by a lack of solutions, but by whether global leaders choose to act before the remaining window closes. As the remaining window narrows, the choice is clear: governments and industry must act decisively now, or continued delay will lock in more severe consequences that future generations will inherit.
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