UK house prices rose by 1% in January, with the average house price standing at £270,873, according to figures from Nationwide.

The lender said annual house price growth picked up from 0.6% in December, while prices rose 0.3% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment, showing a bit of momentum at the start of the year.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “The start of 2026 saw a slight pick-up in annual house price growth, which rose to 1.0% in January, after slowing to 0.6% in December. Prices increased by 0.3% month on month in January, after taking account of seasonal effects.”

Housing market activity weakened toward the end of 2025, which Nationwide said was likely to reflect uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the autumn budget. Despite this, lending activity remained resilient.

“Housing market activity also dipped at the end of 2025, most likely reflecting uncertainty around potential property tax changes ahead of the budget. Nevertheless, the number of mortgages approved for house purchase remained close to the levels prevailing before the pandemic,” Gardner said.

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Affordability improved across most parts of the UK over the past year, except Northern Ireland, where strong house price growth led to a deterioration in affordability.

London recorded the largest improvement for the second year running, reflecting relatively weak house price growth, solid earnings growth and lower interest rates, although it remains the least affordable region.

“For the second year running, London saw the largest improvement in affordability, reflecting relatively weak house price growth in 2025, solid earnings growth and lower interest rates. Nevertheless, the capital remains the least affordable region by a significant margin,” Gardner said.

Nationwide said regional differences in affordability were increasingly shaping who is able to buy. In London, the earnings of actual first-time buyers are around 45% higher than the regional average, while in areas where affordability is less stretched, such as the Midlands and Scotland, buyer incomes tend to be closer to, or even below, regional norms.

“These regional variations in affordability have led to some stark differences emerging between those who would like to buy and those that can do so,” Gardner said.

Nationwide expects activity to recover over the coming quarters if recent improvements in affordability remain. Earnings growth has continued to outpace house price growth, while mortgage rates have fallen over the past year.

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“Housing market activity is likely to recover in the coming quarters, especially if the improving affordability trend seen last year is maintained,” Gardner said.

Other analysts said easing borrowing costs and stronger wage growth should help underpin confidence, even as households remain cautious.

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, said: “The good news is that mortgage rates eased significantly last year, supported by six interest rate cuts since August 2024 – improving affordability levels. The combination of falling interest rates, moderating inflation – albeit with a few bumps along the way – and stronger real wage growth should help underpin housing market confidence. The quarter-point rate cut delivered in December is unlikely to be repeated at the next rate decision meeting this week, with markets expecting the Bank of England to hold steady while it digests fresh data.”

“Consumer sentiment remains subdued, with households likely to exercise caution amid rising unemployment and persistent inflation and borrowing costs that, while easing, remain far above pre-pandemic lows.”

Karen Noye, mortgage expert at Quilter, said the market appeared stable rather than weakening. “This looks less like a market losing momentum and more like one in a holding pattern. Mortgage pricing has already improved compared with this time last year, and further rate cuts should gradually ease monthly repayment pressures.”

“As confidence builds, demand is more likely to strengthen steadily through the year rather than surge all at once.”

The lender said easing affordability pressures helped support buyer demand in 2025, with first time buyers accounting for a rising share of transactions.

“Our recent special report highlighted that affordability constraints have eased over the past year, thanks to earnings growth outpacing house price growth and also a steady decline in mortgage rates,” Gardner said.

Nationwide’s main affordability benchmark shows that a buyer earning the average UK income and purchasing a typical first-time buyer property with a 20% deposit would face monthly mortgage payments equivalent to 32% of take-home pay. This is slightly above the long-run average of 30% but below the peak of 38% recorded in 2023.

Nathan Emerson, chief executive of Propertymark, said further reductions in interest rates could encourage more activity as the year progresses. “Although inflation continues to play influence on the Bank of England’s base rate decisions, as we progress towards the spring it is hoped we may see further measured base rate cuts, which could further help invigorate overall affordability for many people who may have been cautiously keeping check on the market for their prime moment to jump into the buying and selling process.”

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