A GOP rival is on the rise while Vice President JD Vance has dipped below an important threshold when it comes to wagering on who will be the Republican Party candidate for president in 2028.
The Kalshi wagering site shows that 18% of those wagering on the race believe that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will be the GOP candidate for president in three years.
On Jan. 3, just 11% of those placing bets on the site picked Rubio to be the nominee.
At the same time, 46.7% of those placing bets on the race believe that Vance will be the nominee.
While Vance still leads among gamblers on the Kalshi site, his numbers have dropped since Jan. 3 while Rubio’s have been on the rise.
A month ago, 50% of gamblers were betting that Vance would be the nominee.
Vance in fact had consistently been the selection of more than 50% of gamblers placing bets on the site for most of the time since last July.
The 50% threshold is seen as an important indicator of support in popularity polling, including for elected officials and candidates.
Vance’s numbers began dipping below 50% last November, but it’s only been in recent weeks that Rubio gained significant ground.
In December, the secretary of state was was getting single-digit support from wagerers on the Kalshi site.
Vance widely leads polls on the 2028 race and is seen as a likely heir to President Donald Trump.
Trump has in the past said that a GOP ticket of Vance and Rubio would be formidable in 2028.
The president has yet to officially endorse a White House successor.