A new Harvard Harris poll released this week shows the potential top candidates for 2028, with former Vice President Kamala Harris leading Democrats and Vice President JD Vance outpacing the Republican field.
Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email for comment.
Why It Matters
Early polls have gained significance as potential contenders for the 2028 presidential election begin to emerge. Even with the election still years away, polling offers insight into candidate viability, voter sentiment and evolving party dynamics, particularly after the pivotal 2024 election cycle.
What To Know
According to the poll, Harris leads the pack for Democrats with 39 percent, ahead of California Governor Gavin Newsom with 30 percent, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York with 12 percent, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s 9 percent and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker’s 7 percent. The survey shows that 4 percent say someone else.
For Republicans, Vance has a commanding 53 percent of the potential vote, leading Donald Trump Jr. with 21 percent, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 17 percent and former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson’s 5 percent. Three percent of poll respondents say someone else.
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters on January 28 and January 29 and has a margin of error of 1.99 percent.
The survey also shows Vance with a 38 percent favorability rating versus Rubio’s 34 percent, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez’s 32 percent and Tucker Carlson’s 27 percent.
What People Are Saying
Trump, in August during a news conference when asked if Vance is the MAGA successor: “Well, I think most likely in all fairness, he’s the vice president. I think Marco [Rubio] is also somebody that maybe would get together with JD in some form. I also think we have incredible people, some of the people on the stage right here, so it’s too early obviously to talk about it but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
Robert Y. Shapiro, political science professor at Columbia University, to Newsweek via email in August: “The Democratic primary polling is much too early and all we are seeing is name recognition for past presidential candidates and ones in the news lately in a visible way. On the Republican side, DeSantis and Rubio are damaged goods as past losers in the past Republican primaries in 2016 and 2024. Vance is on the rise by virtue of being Vice President and visible when he echoes or advocates more strongly Trump’s MAGA positions and what Trump—and he—have done. He has not been defeated in any past major election so untarnished in that respect.”
What Happens Next
Polls surveying Americans on potential 2028 candidates are expected to continually get released.