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If you are wondering whether Redwire’s current share price lines up with its underlying worth, you are not alone. This article is built to help you frame that question clearly.
Redwire’s stock has been volatile, with a 24.5% decline over the last week and a 57.4% decline over the last year, set against an 11.1% gain year to date and a very large 3 year return that is roughly 3x.
Recent news coverage around Redwire has focused on its role in the space infrastructure and technology sector, including contracts and partnerships that keep the company in the conversation among space related names. While those headlines can move sentiment quickly, they do not always line up neatly with what the fundamentals and valuation models imply.
Despite the headlines, Redwire currently scores 0 out of 6 on Simply Wall St’s valuation checks, as shown by its valuation score. Next we will look at how different valuation approaches frame the stock today and then finish with a way to assess value that goes beyond the usual models.
Redwire scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back into present value terms.
For Redwire, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on cash flow projections in $. The company’s last twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $159.37 million, so the starting point is negative. Analysts provide forecasts out to 2027, and Simply Wall St extrapolates further to build a 10 year path.
Within those projections, free cash flow is expected to be $21.83 million in 2027 and around $17.79 million in 2035, with intermediate years stepping through the path shown in the model data. Each of these future cash flows is discounted back, then combined with a terminal value to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of $1.99 per share.
When that $1.99 estimate is compared with the current share price, the DCF output suggests Redwire is very overvalued, with the model indicating the stock is 403.1% overvalued.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Redwire may be overvalued by 403.1%. Discover 868 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
RDW Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
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