Steel giant forecasts 2% global demand growth outside China this year

Luxembourg steel giant ArcelorMittal is forecasting powerful results ahead as it declared on Thursday that profits more than doubled last year on higher pricing in Europe, strong African mining operations and a lucky US acquisition.

Better days are forecast in its largest market as Europe raises barriers to cheaper imported steel, Germany starts splashing out billions to renew infrastructure, defence spending becomes a priority and countries see broader economic growth, the company said on Thursday. Global steel demand outside of China should climb by 2% this year, the world’s second-largest steelmaker estimated.

ArcelorMittal produced profits of $3.2 billion (€2.7 billion) last year, a giant leap from $1.34 billion (€1.13 billion) in 2024. Factors included stronger production and sales of mined iron ore, especially in Liberia, and an exceptional boost when its partner in a US steel plant was forced to sell its 50% stake for $1 (€0.85).

US President Donald Trump’s return to office a year ago led to a shift away from easy global trade and more emphasis on local production as other countries followed the American lead and imposed higher tariff barriers. That should benefit ArcelorMittal, which has major operations across Europe, Brazil and India besides the US, the company said.

“Nowhere was this more necessary than in Europe, where ArcelorMittal has significant, high-quality operations,” ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Officer Aditya Mittal said in a statement. “While the full benefits of the changes in the regulatory environment will emerge over time – more visibly in the second half [of 2026] and into 2027 – we are very well positioned to benefit from this direction.”

The EU last month fully implemented a carbon penalty on steel imports from countries lacking the bloc’s pollution-cutting measures. This should cut their cost advantage, reducing imports by 10 million metric tonnes and increasing demand for European steel, the company said.

The year-end results left ArcelorMittal reporting a $1.6 billion (€1.35 billion) net gain from acquiring Nippon Steel’s 50% stake their formerly joint-venture factory in the US state of Alabama. The Japanese steelmaker took the extraordinary step of selling out to ArcelorMittal for $1 (€0.85) to get US competition regulators to approve its buyout of domestic rival US Steel.

ArcelorMittal claimed it is uniquely positioned to take advantage from changing market demands for steel in data centres, roads and bridges, specialised formulations for electrical vehicles, and highly profitable defence customers.

“Overall, this combination of positive regulatory developments, structurally supportive macro trends and an improved operating environment leave us well placed to continue delivering on our long-term commitment to achieve consistent returns for shareholders,” Mittal said.

The largest steelmaker outside China is in transition and expanding outside of Europe.

More than 1,000 jobs in Luxembourg and others across Europe are being evaluated for potential transfer to Poland and India, although the company gave assurances on Wednesday that many positions will remain in Luxembourg because they are either specialised or must be performed locally.

ArcelorMittal is negotiating its exit from South Africa as the country’s biggest development-finance institution tries to reach a buyout deal and preserve thousands of jobs after other potential buyers turned away. Last year, it dumped one of Europe’s worst-polluting factories in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The company’s biggest factory in Europe was nationalised by Italy two years ago and France’s National Assembly passed legislation late last year to do the same to its production sites there.

The southern Italy plant at Taranto in was placed under special administration by state-appointed commissioners who last month sued ArcelorMittal for €7 billion in damages for alleged “mismanagement” of the steelworks. l

The company had months earlier started international arbitration against Italy, alleging unlawful expropriation and unfair and discriminatory treatment that cost it more than €1.8 billion.

Luxembourg’s biggest industrial company also was hit by an environmental group’s complaint that ArcelorMittal was clearly veering away from earlier promises to cut its carbon output by announced deadlines.

While the company said it invested nearly $3 billion (€ billion) in decarbonisation projects over seven years, it has pushed into coal-based steel production outside Europe, including plans for new blast furnaces in India.

It also cancelled or delayed green-steel projects in Germany, Belgium and Spain despite receiving an estimated €3 billion in public funding for its transition plans. citing high electricity prices, insufficient supply of clean-burning hydrogen.