Assessing Vistra (VST) Valuation After Nuclear Contracts, Gas Expansion And Evolving U.S. Nuclear Policy

Why Vistra Is Back in Focus for Investors

Vistra (VST) is back on many watchlists after extending long term power purchase agreements for its nuclear assets, expanding its natural gas footprint, and facing shifting U.S. nuclear policy that coincides with recent share price swings.

See our latest analysis for Vistra.

Recent news around long term nuclear power purchase agreements, the Cogentrix natural gas acquisition and shifting U.S. nuclear policy has coincided with a 1 day share price return of 4.6% at a last close of $149.65. However, the 90 day share price return of 21.65% and 1 year total shareholder return of 9.84% indicate that momentum has cooled after a very large 3 year total shareholder return of roughly 6.8x.

If this mix of nuclear and gas exposure has your attention, it could be a good moment to scan other potential beneficiaries in our nuclear energy infrastructure stocks screener, 87 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks.

With earnings expectations firming up and the stock now sitting on a recent 90 day return of 21.65% after a very large 3 year run, is Vistra still mispriced, or is the market already baking in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 35.9% Undervalued

With Vistra last closing at $149.65 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value near $233, the gap between story and share price is hard to ignore.

Structural increases in electricity demand driven by AI, data centers, and U.S. manufacturing are expected to significantly boost the utilization of Vistra’s generation assets, supporting sustained revenue and potential margin expansion as higher fixed cost absorption improves profitability.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of earnings profile might justify that valuation gap? The narrative leans heavily on faster growth, wider margins, and a richer profit multiple than many utilities typically command.

Result: Fair Value of $233 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, this story can break if elevated leverage from acquisitions or tighter decarbonization policy on coal and gas assets puts pressure on cash flows and compresses margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Vistra narrative.

Another Angle on Vistra’s Valuation

The narrative and analyst targets lean heavily on earnings growth, but the current P/E of 52.8x paints a different picture. It is higher than peers at 29.2x, the global Renewable Energy industry at 16.1x, and even the fair ratio of 42.2x. This points to meaningful valuation risk if expectations cool.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:VST P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026 Build Your Own Vistra Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to work from your own assumptions, you can build a custom Vistra thesis in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Vistra research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Vistra has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with other angles on quality, value, and income using targeted screeners.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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