Repeating the Yalta Conference scenario in today’s geopolitical context would be a strategic misstep: it would not bring peace, but would only delay the start of a new war. The United States and the EU should use all their influence to deter Russia’s further aggression and support Ukraine in negotiations from a position of strength.
These ideas are presented in a piece by PhD and Master of the History of International Relations Pinar Dost – a nonresident research fellow at the Atlantic Council on Turkish affairs, prepared for Türkiye Today.
Yalta as a Lesson for Modern Negotiations and the West’s Role
«For many years, discussions in the Russian public discourse have revolved around a ‘new Yalta’ – an agreement by which the world, including Ukraine, would be divided into spheres of influence among the strongest, namely Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Looking to the present, Russia seeks to achieve in Ukraine and across all former Soviet territories that these regions be governed by pro-Russian governments»
– Pinar Dost
The scholar underscores that for modern Russia the Yalta settlement is not a warning but an example of how the West acknowledged Soviet dominance in the “near abroad.” She draws parallels between these negotiations and the current efforts by the United States and Russia to end the war.
«Russia seeks to determine the fate of Ukraine through an agreement similar to Yalta, guided by the talks between Trump and Putin in Alaska»
– Pinar Dost
Dost also notes: even after active hostilities have ended, the threat from Russia will not disappear without reliable security guarantees, and the absence of mention of Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the undefined deterrence mechanisms create conditions for renewed aggression.
«An attempt to buy time or temporarily avert the threat later may turn into an irreversible failure. Yalta showed this. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 showed this as well»
– Pinar Dost
As a conclusion, the expert emphasizes that the United States and the EU should use the maximum political and diplomatic levers of influence against Russia and support Ukraine so that Ukraine can participate in negotiations from a position of strength.
According to the information agency, the next meetings of the negotiating teams of Ukraine, the United States, and Russia are planned in the United States. Also within the framework of bilateral and trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates, over two days the delegations of Ukraine, the United States, and Russia discussed in detail the issues of a ceasefire and monitoring its compliance.