Greece’s demographic decline makes a return to 2011–2020 birth levels unattainable, as multiple factors continue to reduce births. Credit: Wikimedia Commons / Katie Simmons Barth CC BY 2.0
The return of annual births in Greece to the levels recorded between 2011 and 2020 is unattainable in the coming decades because the number of women of reproductive age continues to shrink, according to new demographic research published by Greece’s Institute of Demographic Research.
The findings come from a study by Vyron Kotzamanis, emeritus professor of demography at the University of Thessaly and director of the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM), published in the latest issue of the institute’s digital bulletin PopNews. The research examines whether births and fertility could increase in Greece in the decades ahead and identifies the structural limits facing any recovery.
What the experts found about Greece’s demographic decline
Kotzamanis noted that the decline in births began around 1980 and has continued since, at varying speeds. The main driver has been a rapid fall in completed fertility among women born after 1960. Women born in the late 1950s had around two children on average, while those born around 1985 had fewer than 1.5. This long-term reduction in family size mirrors trends seen across Europe and the West, but Greece stands out for the persistence and depth of the decline.
In much of western and northern Europe, fertility temporarily stabilised among interwar generations, producing the post-war baby boom. In Greece, however, the number of children per couple has continued to fall almost without interruption, while remaining well below the number of children people say they would like to have. This gap points to unmet reproductive intentions, shaped by economic, social and institutional problems and is directly reflected in lower birth numbers.
Births fell sharply after 2006, from about 117,000 in 2007–08 to fewer than 65,500 in 2025, a stunning drop of 44.5%. Alongside lower fertility, this decline reflects a 27% reduction between 2007 and 2025 in the number of women aged 25 to 44, who account for nearly nine in ten births. This contraction is linked mainly to the collapse in births after 1980 and, to a lesser extent, to the large-scale emigration of young adults after the peak of the financial criris between 2010 and 2018.
At the same time, childbearing has been steadily postponed to later ages. The average age at childbirth rose from 26 for women born in 1960 to 31.5 for those born in 1985. Births to mothers under 25 fell from 28% in 1960 to just over 10% today, while births to women aged 40 and over increased to more than 10% in 2023–24.
Rising childlessness has also played a role. About 24% of women born around 1985 are expected to remain without children, up from 13–14% among the 1960 population. Combined with declining progression to second and third births, this has sharply reduced the share of large families.
According to Kotzamanis, even if fertility indicators improve, Greece demographic decline means births cannot return to the 2011–2020 average of 92,000 per year, assuming migration balances remain neutral. He adds, however, that slowing the decline and eventually achieving a gradual increase is possible, provided migration turns positive at reproductive ages and fertility rises towards 1.7–1.8 children per woman. Closing the gap between desired and actual fertility, he argues, requires long-term structural reforms that create a genuinely supportive environment for families and children.