Wholesale electricity prices for the day-ahead in Europe in January showed an increase due to rising demand and higher costs of other energy sources.
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January Trends
According to Ember, as of February 4, 2026, they were as follows:
Italy – €132.6/MWh (+14.8% m/m);
France – €101.3/MWh (+47.5%);
Germany – €109.7/MWh (+17%);
Spain – €71.3/MWh (-8.4%);
Sweden – €99.1/MWh (+116.3%).
In Poland, the average monthly day-ahead price in January was €142.9/MWh, in Slovakia – €142.128/MWh, in Hungary – €150/MWh – a significant increase compared to December.
In January, according to AleaSoft, prices on most major European electricity markets (excluding the Iberian) exceeded €100/MWh. In several of them, the monthly indicator reached the highest level since at least March 2025.
Demand for electricity in Europe increased last month due to low temperatures. The cost of electricity was significantly influenced by the increase in TTF gas futures – in January, they reached the highest average value since July 2025. CO₂ futures reached their highest levels in at least 2 years. Some countries in January recorded historical monthly wind energy production records.
According to Ember’s research, renewable sources provided almost half of the EU’s electricity last year. Wind and solar energy in 2025 accounted for 30% in the energy mix, while fossil fuels accounted for 29%. Electricity production from gas increased by 8% y/y, largely due to a decrease in hydroelectric production.
European countries view gas power plants as controlled reserve capacity during periods of insufficient generation from renewable sources. In January, the European Commission preliminarily approved Germany’s plan for new gas power capacities and also approved Spain’s €3.1 billion state aid scheme to support cogeneration of electricity (highly efficient CHP).
Situation in Ukraine
In January, the weighted average purchase-sale price of electricity on the Day-Ahead Market in Ukraine, according to the Market Operator, increased by 21.8% m/m to 8381.08 UAH/MWh (€166.5/MWh at the average monthly exchange rate of hryvnia to euro).
Demand on the Day-Ahead Market last month increased by 9.14% compared to December, while supply increased by 10.14%.
Last year, the weighted average purchase-sale price of electricity on the Day-Ahead Market was 5643.94 UAH/MWh (€119.9/MWh at the annual average exchange rate of hryvnia to euro).
According to the previous monitoring by ExPro Electricity, in January 2026, Ukraine imported record amounts of electricity – over 894 thousand MWh (+40% m/m), the highest figure since the start of the full-scale war.
The largest share in the export structure still belongs to Hungary (45%). Supplies increased in all directions except Moldova.
ExPro noted that the level of use of the import capacity increased – the number of hours it was already used even reached 100%. This mostly concerns daytime and evening peaks. The highest growth in hourly terms was recorded during the daytime hours (08:00-17:00).
Difficult Situation
The situation in the Ukrainian power system remains extremely difficult due to constant attacks by the aggressor country. Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko informed that Russia had carried out 217 attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector since the beginning of the year (as of February 4).
On the night of February 3, the Russians launched a record number of ballistic missile attacks on the energy sector – 32. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, another 11 missiles of other types were fired, along with 28 cruise missiles and 450 combat drones.
On January 16, a state of emergency was introduced in the Ukrainian energy sector. The regulator NEURC at an extraordinary meeting on the same day temporarily (from January 18 to March 31) set the maximum limit price for electricity on the day-ahead and intraday market at 15,000 UAH/MWh for the entire day. On the balancing market for the same period, the maximum limit price was set at 16,000 UAH/MWh.
The decision was made following Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal’s statement about the government’s expectations to review the maximum electricity prices on the spot market and align day and night price caps to attract electricity imports throughout the day.
On January 31, a crisis situation arose in the country’s energy system. Two accidents on high-voltage lines in the morning of that day, with a minute interval, caused cascading disconnections in seven regions of the country and triggered automatic protections at substations, also leading to the unloading of NPP units.
Denys Shmyhal reported that a technological disruption occurred with the simultaneous disconnection of the 400 kV line between the energy systems of Romania and Moldova and the 750 kV line between the western and central parts of Ukraine. Versions of a cyberattack or external interference were not confirmed. The technological accident also affected energy supply in Moldova.
The shortage of electricity and its high cost significantly affect Ukrainian businesses, especially the mining and metallurgical complex. In January, the mining company Ferrexpo announced a temporary suspension of operations due to Russian strikes on the energy infrastructure.
ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih announced the forced shutdown of the blooming mill in the second quarter last month. The main factor at the enterprise was the final introduction of CBAM without exceptions for Ukraine, and an additional but no less significant factor was the extremely high cost of electricity in the country.
The Ukrainian Association of Ferroalloy and Electrometallurgical Products Manufacturers appealed to the Government regarding the critical situation in the industry and the possibility of pilot implementation of state support mechanisms. The industry’s situation is complicated by the constant increase in electricity tariffs (transmission, distribution, application of price caps), the lack of preferential lending for enterprises operating in the conflict zone, and mechanisms for compensating investments in alternative energy projects.
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Теги: AleaSoft, Crisis situation, Day-Ahead Market, electricity prices, Ember, Energy Minister, Energy sector attacks, Europe, European Commission, ExPro Electricity, Gas power plants, Import capacity, January trends, NEURC, renewable energy, Russia, Technological disruption, Ukraine, Ukrainian businesses, wholesale prices