What a year 2025 was for the entire world to see! The second coming of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has been a telling realization that things would be a lot more complicated than better. 2026 is not a “back to normal” year. It’s an adjusted, rebuilding-the-operating-system year in which every variable will be challenged, from costs to revenue. World events related to the likes of Venezuela, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and others, will continue to keep everything on edge. In Mexico’s case, it needs to carefully balance Trump’s demands and the USMCA renegotiations, whether Canada will be part of it or not, given talks may end up being a one-on-one negotiation with Donald Trump himself, with tough stances on immigration, drug trafficking, and new terms to help his own country’s automotive industry, while also looking at the Mexican accessory parts supply chain and putting tougher demands on oil companies’ investments in energy in Mexico, particularly oil and gas. The use of tariffs will be key to taming damage to Mexico’s economy as well as a hybrid, limited China interaction. 

Regarding the forecast for aerospace, most analysts predict higher production rates as supply chain and operational conditions improve, despite world events with NATO in Europe and with the Russian invasion of Ukraine that is now in its fourth year. The sector is also supported by strong demand and an active aftermarket. Order books remain near historic highs, with Boeing and Airbus together exceeding 15,300 large commercial aircraft, giving OEM’s years of productive visibility. The world, however, is entering an era of cascading risks: climate disruptions, economic shocks, technological uncertainty, and social instability are unfolding in complex and interconnected ways. Responding to these challenges requires more than short-term fixes. It requires foresight, coordination, and public trust at the global level.

In the case of AI, the controversy lies in the hefty investment in data center infrastructure around the world. Despite the immense amounts of money being invested, the tech world is finding out it may not be what they expected. This bubble may burst and a huge economic correction could come at any time during the year. Still, AI has become  central to the theme of hiring across industries. Although the technology is still in the developmental stages, and despite all the controversies and fear mongering, nobody can deny AI’s practical use for doing basic tasks, good research, and helping reshape productivity in the workplace. Other aspects, however, cannot be ignored, such as validation of those same tasks. The coming months will determine if the next frontier of AI actually becomes a reality. Furthermore, trade discussions with China will become more evident by Q2 this year. Negotiations have not been smooth, and China’s President Xi Jinping has also fired back with tariffs. Mexico got entangled in the tariff discussion amid pressure from Washington to increase tariffs. President Claudia Sheinbaum went ahead with a 50% levy on imports from China and some other Asian countries, a move that is also seen as a way to appease Washington ahead of the USMCA negotiations. It remains to be seen how this, too, will unfold.

The domestic agenda for Mexico in relation to the United States will center around the renegotiation of the USMCA. Sheinbaum also needs to remain focused on trade and investment, and convince American investors that Mexico can resolve the issue of violence in different states.  There is minimal margin for error. The focus is also on having solid infrastructure work related to water projects, world-class roadways, and the energy question on everyone’s mind: energy generation and the oil and gas industries. The government’s Plan Mexico, unveiled in 2024, also has multiple avenues to develop.  These include banking for loans to the small and medium enterprises that are the productive backbone of the country as well as tax incentives, which have been basically non-existent since 2018. Together, these issues represent the most complete challenge to this Mexican administration in terms of business, jobs, and the economy, rather than ideology. There is also political pressure from the major political parties, and evidence that some governors colluded with Mexican drug cartels, which are now officially labeled terrorists. Also, there is an urgent need to eliminate the current US tariffs on steel and aluminum for the benefit of our country. 

Geopolitical issues have become the norm during Trump’s second presidency and most countries have taken a stark stance to avoid being bullied, from Russia to Iran, Venezuela to Greenland. These issues seem like distractions from the damaging release by the U.S. Congress of the Jeffrey Epstein files that contain millions of documents, photos and videos of very powerful people, and released under tremendous public pressure. A central discussion is the economy, which has made many goods and services unaffordable for the average American household. Immigration policies have worsened. Unemployment has been in free fall since mid-2025. Inflation remains the key, stubborn variable that needs to be resolved, even after a number of interest rate cuts, which can also be counterproductive, especially now with the value of the dollar losing around 13%.

Finally, in the case of exports to the United States, Mexico has remained steady as its top partner, but that cannot be taken for granted. In addition to tariffs, there are other penalties that are having an impact. An example is the pause on issuing US visas to truck drivers crossing the border to deliver exports from various industries to the United States. Those drivers are now required to prove they are proficient in the English language. Enforcing the China tariffs that Mexico has imposed will also be a challenge,  given the vast amount of imports from China and the fact that China does not buy similar quantities of Mexican goods. This is another negotiation in the making. Sheinbaum will be forced to provide incentives to the economy amid years of low to zero GDP growth, which will be even worse from a political standpoint. Labor laws, origin rules, and legal barriers will be the top issues to resolve from the current USMCA.