SpaceX founder Elon Musk just said the company is stepping back from its previously touted plan to send humans to Mars in the near term in favor of building a permanent settlement on the Moon. This redirection has led the private spaceflight revolution and captured global attention with its Starship megaroсket development.
Musk shared the update on his social media platform X, telling millions of followers that the logic behind the decision is rooted in the mechanics of space travel and the timeline for achieving a self-sustaining human presence beyond Earth.
He said missions to Mars are limited by planetary alignment, which allows Earth to Mars transfers only once roughly every 26 months, and that a trip to the Red Planet takes about six months under optimal conditions. In contrast, missions to the Moon could launch about every ten days and take only a few days to reach the lunar surface.
The Logic Behind the Pivot
Image Credit: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia.
Musk is apparently convinced that this difference in cadence and travel time means building what he calls a “self-growing city” on the Moon could be accomplished in less than a decade.
He emphasized that lunar settlement offers a faster path to securing a long-term backup for civilization and to proving out technologies needed for extended life off Earth.
The Moon plan will not involve humans at first. SpaceX is targeting a crewless landing on the lunar surface in March 2027 as part of NASA’s Artemis program.
The Starship vehicle, a fully reusable heavy lift launch system designed by SpaceX, will deliver the lander to the surface. NASA has contracted the company to play a central role in returning astronauts to the Moon, where no human has set foot since 1972.
Image Credit: NASA/SpaceX – Public Domain, Wikimedia.
This renewed lunar emphasis represents a reversal from Musk’s earlier statements. Only last year, he dismissed the Moon as a distraction from Mars colonization. At that time, he predicted uncrewed Starship missions to Mars as soon as 2026, with humans possibly landing by 2029.
Those timelines have repeatedly slipped due to technical challenges with Starship development and regulatory scrutiny following test flight anomalies, including engine failures and explosive mishaps during high-altitude tests.
Moon First, Mars Later
Despite the change in priority, Musk insisted that Mars is not being abandoned entirely. In his X post, he said SpaceX still aims to begin work on a Martian city within five to seven years. But for now, securing a foothold on the Moon and developing infrastructure that could support sustained human activity is the priority.
“SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster,” Musk wrote.
SpaceX’s pivot can be seen as a reflection of technical realities and competitive pressures. Musk may be right about Lunar missions’ capability to be repeated more frequently, accelerating learning and reducing risk. They also contribute to U.S. strategic goals in space.
China has made clear its intention to land astronauts on the Moon around the end of the decade, setting up a new space race of sorts. It makes sense that U.S. companies and NASA are eager not to cede leadership in lunar exploration.
A New Space Race
But the implications of prioritizing Lunar travel extend beyond prestige. Musk has floated ideas for using lunar resources to manufacture components like solar arrays and constructing space-based data centers that could operate more efficiently outside Earth’s atmosphere.
Extracting oxygen from lunar soil is another concept that researchers say could cut costs by reducing the need to launch propellant from Earth.
Ultimately, Musk’s announcement is a reality check. Predictions of a Mars colony within the next few years had captured imaginations and fueled debate about humanity’s future in space.
While lunar settlement may seem more modest by comparison, it could be a necessary steppingstone to achieving that grand vision.
Building a multiplanetary civilization remains a long game, with successes and setbacks understandably shaping the roadmap. As Musk implied in his post, bolder ambitions have not disappeared entirely. Rather they are being reconfigured around what is, for now, a more achievable first step in our expansion beyond Earth’s orbit.