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Redwire (NYSE: RDW) and Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY) both missed Q3 2025 earnings badly. Redwire posted revenue of $103.4 million and EPS of -$0.29, while Firefly delivered revenue of $30.8 million and EPS of -$0.33. Both stocks collapsed over 20% in the past week.
Infrastructure Builder vs. Launch Provider
Redwire focuses on space infrastructure and autonomous systems. The company completed its Edge Autonomy acquisition and reported 50.7% year-over-year revenue growth. Management maintained full-year guidance of $320 to $340 million, and the book-to-bill ratio of 1.25 suggests demand is holding. But the business is bleeding cash with a net loss of $41.2 million in Q3, nearly double the $21 million loss from the prior year. Gross margin sits at just 16.3%, leaving almost no room for error.
Firefly operates launch services and spacecraft systems. Revenue nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter with 98% sequential growth, driven by its SciTec acquisition for national security capabilities. The company secured a $176.7 million NASA Blue Ghost Mission 4 contract, validating its lunar lander technology. But profitability is worse. Firefly reported a net loss of $133.4 million in Q3. Gross margin of 27.6% beats Redwire but remains unprofitable. The company holds $995 million in cash, which buys time but raises questions about burn rate.
Metric
Redwire
Firefly
Q3 Revenue
$103.4M
$30.8M
Gross Margin
16.3%
27.6%
Net Loss
$41.2M
$133.4M
Different Bets on the Space Economy
Redwire bets on infrastructure supporting satellites and spacecraft in orbit. The Edge Autonomy deal expands into defense-adjacent markets, potentially providing steadier revenue than pure space hardware. The book-to-bill above 1.0 suggests the pipeline is growing, but execution has been messy. Redwire missed analyst estimates by 142% in Q3 and posted worse surprises in Q2 (-1009%) and Q4 2024 (-667%). That pattern suggests either overly optimistic guidance or operational problems management hasn’t fixed.
Firefly focuses on launch services and lunar missions. The NASA contract is a major win, but launch is capital-intensive with thin margins until scale kicks in. The SciTec acquisition adds national security revenue, which tends to be stickier than commercial contracts. The problem is cash burn. A $133.4 million quarterly loss against $30.8 million in revenue means the company spends more than four dollars for every dollar it brings in. The $995 million cash cushion provides runway, but investors need to see a path to profitability.
Planet Labs Offers a Different Profile
Planet Labs (NYSE: PL) deserves mention as a third option. The company reported Q3 revenue of $81.3 million with breakeven EPS, and posted four consecutive quarters of adjusted EBITDA profitability. Gross margin sits at 57%, dramatically better than either Redwire or Firefly. The satellite imagery business is more mature, and cash grew 180% year-over-year to $677 million. Planet isn’t growing as fast but is profitable with a clearer business model.
Key Differences Between the Two Companies
Neither Redwire nor Firefly has achieved profitability. Redwire has revenue momentum but faces margin challenges and a history of missing estimates. Firefly has secured significant contracts but operates with unsustainable cash burn rates. Investors focused on space infrastructure may find Redwire’s business model more aligned with their thesis, as the company bets on infrastructure scaling faster than launch services. Those who view lunar missions and national security contracts as the primary growth driver may find Firefly’s positioning more attractive. Both companies face the challenge of demonstrating margin improvement and consistent execution before reaching profitability. Planet Labs presents a different risk profile with established profitability and a more mature business model, though without the same growth trajectory as the two unprofitable competitors.