During the Asian trading session on Monday, the international crude oil market saw light trading activity, with prices consolidating sideways. The front-month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled at $62.88 per barrel, remaining largely unchanged, while Brent crude traded at $67.74 per barrel, showing limited volatility.
Market risk appetite remained moderate, but investors exercised caution ahead of key meetings, leaving oil prices without clear directional momentum. Expectations regarding supply dynamics have become the dominant theme in the current market.
Some OPEC+ members believe that the global market’s supply and demand structure has improved, with inventory pressures under control, creating conditions to gradually restore some production in April. This news reinforced market expectations of increased future supply, posing upward resistance to oil prices.
The research department of ANZ Bank noted that OPEC+ will hold a meeting on March 1 to discuss the implementation of production cuts and future output arrangements.
If the meeting confirms a gradual production increase pathway, short-term oil prices may face pressure; if existing production cut levels are maintained, it could provide some support to the market. Uncertainty remains on the demand side.
Signs of a global economic slowdown have not yet fully dissipated, with limited momentum in industrial activity and energy consumption growth. However, if major economies adopt more accommodative monetary policies, this could support energy demand in the medium term.
Overall, the oil market is currently in a phase of balancing expectations between supply and demand.
From a daily chart perspective, U.S. crude oil is trading within a consolidation range above $60 per barrel, reflecting a temporary consolidation pattern. After rebounding from lower levels, prices have been fluctuating around $62, indicating significant divergence between buyers and sellers at this level.
The short-term moving average system has flattened, indicating a noticeable slowdown in upward momentum. Prices are currently fluctuating around the 20-day moving average, suggesting that the market has yet to establish a new trend direction.
If prices continue to stabilize above $62 and break through the resistance level at $64.50, there may be room for further upside, potentially testing the $65 level and higher regions.
On the downside, the key technical support is located at the $62 level. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline toward the $60 region.
In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 50, not yet entering extreme territory, indicating that the market remains in a neutral consolidation phase and awaits fundamental developments to determine direction.
Overall, the technical structure of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil exhibits a typical “range-bound, awaiting breakout” pattern. Prior to the conclusion of the OPEC+ meeting, prices are likely to remain within the $60–$65 range. Once clarity on supply policy emerges, a breakout movement may follow.
Editor’s Note:
The current oil market lacks a clear trend driver, with expectations on the supply side becoming the core variable. The technical structure of WTI crude suggests the market has entered a consolidation phase, with $62 serving as a critical inflection point. In the short term, trading will likely remain range-bound, while the medium-term direction hinges on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting regarding supply adjustments.