Denmark’s vote to scrap its opt-out from the EU’s defence policy with an overwhelming majority is more than a decisive change of heart in a country often hostile to European integration.
Combined with the historic decisions of Finland and Sweden to seek Nato membership, the Danish result in a referendum on Wednesday changes the security situation in the Nordics completely — aligning them more closely with their Baltic neighbours and giving the whole region the potential for more clout in Europe.
“For the first time ever all the Nordics and Baltics will be able to participate in the same military missions, we will all be members of the same institutions,” said Lykke Friis, a former Danish minister. “All this institutional bickering and questions of who is a member of what will end. It’s a true Nordic Zeitenwende [turning point].”
Alex Stubb, the former Finnish prime minister, added: “Things have changed completely. I have never felt more Nordic. And we have a bigger voice now.”
The dramatic shift is all down to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, and a realisation among its neighbours and near-neighbours in the Nordics and Baltics that they could be next if Moscow is not deterred.
“It’s all thanks to Putin. Nothing brings people together like a common enemy. It’s remarkable the dynamic there now is in the region. You can talk of a ‘bastion of the north’,” said Minna Ålander, research assistant at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
The pace and the scale of the change has been remarkable. Denmark had previously rejected scrapping its two other opt-outs from EU structures — the euro in 2000, and justice and home affairs in 2015 — but Wednesday’s vote ended up being the most pro-EU in the Eurosceptic country’s history, with 67 per cent plumping for yes.
Similarly, in Finland and Sweden support for Nato membership had for decades been stable at a low level, before Russia’s war against Ukraine led to a huge jump. In 2017, just 19 per cent of Finns were in favour of joining Nato and 53 per cent against: by early May, 76 per cent of Finns were in favour of joining Nato with just 12 per cent against.
Norway, although not a member of the EU, already takes part in several areas of co-operation on defence and security policy.
The question now is what this more unified Nordic region, together with the three Baltic states, will be able to accomplish — assuming Turkey’s opposition to Finland and Sweden’s Nato bids is overcome.
The most obvious change will be that defence planning for how to respond to a potential Russian attack will be able to include all eight countries, rather than each having national plans.
“For the first time in history, we will have all the Nordic and Baltic countries in the same collective defence agreement. It’s a very big change that creates more cohesion in the region,” said Kristi Raik, director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute. “We’ve all had the same threat assessment and the same tricky neighbour, but different arrangements on how to manage it. The co-operation now becomes much clearer, and much closer.”
Defence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be easier with both Sweden and Finland in Nato, especially as the strategic Swedish island of Gotland — dubbed an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic Sea that Russia could use to control regional airspace — would be within the military alliance.
But it also allows Nato to look at the region from the Arctic Circle to the Baltic Sea as one area. “We will probably see a more Nordic Nato,” said Stubb.
A bigger question is whether the Nordics and Baltics will be able to have more influence over security matters in general.
There has been dissatisfaction, particularly in the Baltics, at the approach of France and Germany, the two dominant EU countries, to Russia in recent weeks after months of unity.
Ålander said it was a simple question of geography: France and Germany are keen “not to burn all their bridges with Russia” as they are further away from Moscow, whereas the Nordics and Baltics, as neighbours of Russia, “want to make sure it can’t attack any others again”.
Raik said smaller countries in Europe have long been wary of forming clear blocs, which risks reducing their flexibility. “When it comes to Ukraine, and the future of European security, they have a shared interest, and that can translate to more influence too,” she added.
In France and Germany, there is a growing discussion of how central and eastern Europe — led by the Baltics and Poland — are pressing for a more hawkish stance on Ukraine alongside the UK and US. Ålander noted that London had displaced Berlin and Paris as being perceived as the most “relevant and reliable” non-Nordic security partner in Europe.
The jury is out, however, on whether this makes the Nordic-Baltic bloc into something lasting and capable of exerting more sway.
Raik noted how “the Estonian position has never been heard as much as it has been in the past month”, but also that “the differences in how to approach Russia remain profound”.
Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway will have 250 modern fighter jets that will soon be able to operate out of each other’s air bases.
It will be one of the strongest air forces in the world.
Thanks Putin.
Stronger united. NATO acceptance should simply be a formality, Russian threats and Turkish undermining do not mean that the rest of Europe would not actively support the defence of any member state.
>The jury is out, however, on whether this makes the Nordic-Baltic bloc into something lasting and capable of exerting more sway.
If anything it makes a true Nordic defence block a possibility (Norway ain’t going to join EU). Not some Nordic-Baltic. Though I understand that article has been written from Estonian wannabe Nordic view point.
For Baltic states most important ally remains Poland in geopolitic sphere not Nordic states.
Baltic state independence after WW1 would not have been possible without Polish victory in the battle of Warsaw 1920.
5 comments
Denmark’s vote to scrap its opt-out from the EU’s defence policy with an overwhelming majority is more than a decisive change of heart in a country often hostile to European integration.
Combined with the historic decisions of Finland and Sweden to seek Nato membership, the Danish result in a referendum on Wednesday changes the security situation in the Nordics completely — aligning them more closely with their Baltic neighbours and giving the whole region the potential for more clout in Europe.
“For the first time ever all the Nordics and Baltics will be able to participate in the same military missions, we will all be members of the same institutions,” said Lykke Friis, a former Danish minister. “All this institutional bickering and questions of who is a member of what will end. It’s a true Nordic Zeitenwende [turning point].”
Alex Stubb, the former Finnish prime minister, added: “Things have changed completely. I have never felt more Nordic. And we have a bigger voice now.”
The dramatic shift is all down to Russian president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February, and a realisation among its neighbours and near-neighbours in the Nordics and Baltics that they could be next if Moscow is not deterred.
“It’s all thanks to Putin. Nothing brings people together like a common enemy. It’s remarkable the dynamic there now is in the region. You can talk of a ‘bastion of the north’,” said Minna Ålander, research assistant at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
The pace and the scale of the change has been remarkable. Denmark had previously rejected scrapping its two other opt-outs from EU structures — the euro in 2000, and justice and home affairs in 2015 — but Wednesday’s vote ended up being the most pro-EU in the Eurosceptic country’s history, with 67 per cent plumping for yes.
Similarly, in Finland and Sweden support for Nato membership had for decades been stable at a low level, before Russia’s war against Ukraine led to a huge jump. In 2017, just 19 per cent of Finns were in favour of joining Nato and 53 per cent against: by early May, 76 per cent of Finns were in favour of joining Nato with just 12 per cent against.
Norway, although not a member of the EU, already takes part in several areas of co-operation on defence and security policy.
The question now is what this more unified Nordic region, together with the three Baltic states, will be able to accomplish — assuming Turkey’s opposition to Finland and Sweden’s Nato bids is overcome.
The most obvious change will be that defence planning for how to respond to a potential Russian attack will be able to include all eight countries, rather than each having national plans.
“For the first time in history, we will have all the Nordic and Baltic countries in the same collective defence agreement. It’s a very big change that creates more cohesion in the region,” said Kristi Raik, director of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute. “We’ve all had the same threat assessment and the same tricky neighbour, but different arrangements on how to manage it. The co-operation now becomes much clearer, and much closer.”
Defence of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be easier with both Sweden and Finland in Nato, especially as the strategic Swedish island of Gotland — dubbed an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the middle of the Baltic Sea that Russia could use to control regional airspace — would be within the military alliance.
But it also allows Nato to look at the region from the Arctic Circle to the Baltic Sea as one area. “We will probably see a more Nordic Nato,” said Stubb.
A bigger question is whether the Nordics and Baltics will be able to have more influence over security matters in general.
There has been dissatisfaction, particularly in the Baltics, at the approach of France and Germany, the two dominant EU countries, to Russia in recent weeks after months of unity.
Ålander said it was a simple question of geography: France and Germany are keen “not to burn all their bridges with Russia” as they are further away from Moscow, whereas the Nordics and Baltics, as neighbours of Russia, “want to make sure it can’t attack any others again”.
Raik said smaller countries in Europe have long been wary of forming clear blocs, which risks reducing their flexibility. “When it comes to Ukraine, and the future of European security, they have a shared interest, and that can translate to more influence too,” she added.
In France and Germany, there is a growing discussion of how central and eastern Europe — led by the Baltics and Poland — are pressing for a more hawkish stance on Ukraine alongside the UK and US. Ålander noted that London had displaced Berlin and Paris as being perceived as the most “relevant and reliable” non-Nordic security partner in Europe.
The jury is out, however, on whether this makes the Nordic-Baltic bloc into something lasting and capable of exerting more sway.
Raik noted how “the Estonian position has never been heard as much as it has been in the past month”, but also that “the differences in how to approach Russia remain profound”.
Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Norway will have 250 modern fighter jets that will soon be able to operate out of each other’s air bases.
It will be one of the strongest air forces in the world.
Thanks Putin.
Stronger united. NATO acceptance should simply be a formality, Russian threats and Turkish undermining do not mean that the rest of Europe would not actively support the defence of any member state.
>The jury is out, however, on whether this makes the Nordic-Baltic bloc into something lasting and capable of exerting more sway.
If anything it makes a true Nordic defence block a possibility (Norway ain’t going to join EU). Not some Nordic-Baltic. Though I understand that article has been written from Estonian wannabe Nordic view point.
For Baltic states most important ally remains Poland in geopolitic sphere not Nordic states.
Baltic state independence after WW1 would not have been possible without Polish victory in the battle of Warsaw 1920.