Market Probability Tracker – Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

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// Internal-FR – Source Code

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const highchartsRecessionBands = [
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1923,4,1), to: Date.UTC(1924,5,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1926,9,1), to: Date.UTC(1927,10,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1929,7,1), to: Date.UTC(1933,2,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1937,4,1), to: Date.UTC(1938,5,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1945,1,1), to: Date.UTC(1945,9,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1948,10,1), to: Date.UTC(1949,9,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1953,6,1), to: Date.UTC(1954,4,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1957,7,1), to: Date.UTC(1958,3,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1960,3,1), to: Date.UTC(1961,1,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1969,11,1), to: Date.UTC(1970,10,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1973,10,1), to: Date.UTC(1975,2,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1980,0,1), to: Date.UTC(1980,6,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1981,6,1), to: Date.UTC(1982,10,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(1990,6,1), to: Date.UTC(1991,2,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(2001,2,1), to: Date.UTC(2001,10,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(2007,11,1), to: Date.UTC(2009,5,1) },
{ color: ‘#EFEFEF’, from: Date.UTC(2020,2,1), to: Date.UTC(2021,3,1) }
];

const monthNames = [ “January”,
“February”, “March”, “April”, “May”,
“June”, “July”, “August”, “September”,
“October”, “November”, “December”
];

let resizeTimeout;
let chartList = [];

const FRBAHighcharts = (function FRBAHighcharts() {
let title = “”;
let subTitle = “”;
let legendAlignPosition = “top”;
let legendYPosition = 0;
let sourceLine = “Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta”;
let categories = null;
let stacking = “normal”;
let dataSeries = [];
let xAxisType = “datetime”;
let xAxisTitle = “”;
let reverse = false;
let yAxisLabel = “”;
let xAxisMin = null;
let yAxisMin = null;
let enableYAxisLabel = true;
let enableTooltip = true;
let tooltipHeader = “”;
let formattedTooltip = ”;
let isShowLegend = true;
let additionalTooltipDataFormat = null;
let chartRecessionBands = null;
let enableLastDataLabel = false;
let tickInterval = null;
let polar = false;
let mobileMarginBottom;

function initializeHighcharts(type = “line”, marginBottom = 110) {

categories = null;
chartRecessionBands = highchartsRecessionBands;
dataSeries = [];
enableLastDataLabel = false;
formattedTooltip = ”;
mobileMarginBottom = marginBottom;
reverse = false;
subTitle=””;
tickInterval = null;
tooltipHeader=””;
xAxisTitle=””;
yAxisLabel=””;

Highcharts.setOptions({
chart: {
marginBottom: marginBottom,
style: { overflow: ‘visible’ },
styledMode: true,
type: type
},
accessibility: {
enabled: true,
screenReaderSection: {
beforeChartFormat: ‘{chartTitle}’
}
},
credits: { enabled: false},
exporting: {
scale: 1, allowHTML: true,
chartOptions: {
legend: { enabled: true },
rangeSelector: { enabled: false }
},
enableImages: true,
buttons: {
contextButton: {
text: ‘Export’,
menuItems: [{
text: ‘Print this chart’, onclick: function () {
this.print();
thisTitle = this.options.title.text; newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “); newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘print’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ | ‘ + document.title });
}
}, {
separator: true,
}, {
text: ‘Save as PNG’, onclick: function () {
this.exportChart();
let thisTitle = this.options.title.text;
let newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘png’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ | ‘ + document.title });
}
}, {
text: ‘Save as JPEG’, onclick: function () {
this.exportChart({ type: ‘image/jpeg’ });
let thisTitle = this.options.title.text;
let newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘jpeg’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ | ‘ + document.title });
}
}, {
text: ‘Save as SVG’, onclick: function () {
this.exportChart({ type: ‘image/svg+xml’ });
let thisTitle = this.options.title.text;
let newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘svg’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ | ‘ + document.title });
}
}, {
text: ‘Save as PDF’, onclick: function () {
this.exportChart({ type: ‘application/pdf’ });
let thisTitle = this.options.title.text;
let newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “); newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘pdf’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ | ‘ + document.title });
}
}]
}
}
},
lang: {
thousandsSep: ‘,’
},
plotOptions: {
area: {
marker: { enabled: false }
},
scatter: { marker: { enabled: true } },
spline: { marker: { enabled: false } },
series: {
events: {
hide: function () {
thisTitle = this.chart.title.textStr;

newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);

window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘hideSeries’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ (series: ‘ + this.name + ‘) | ‘ + document.title });
},
show: function () {
thisTitle = this.chart.title.textStr;
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘showSeries’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ (series: ‘ + this.name + ‘) | ‘ + document.title });
}
},
label: { enabled: false},
marker: {
//enabled: true
},
states: {
inactive: { opacity: 1 }
}
}
},
xAxis: {
labels: {
y: 20,
lineWidth: 2, tickmarkPlacement: ‘on’,
labels: { y: 40},
}
},
yAxis: {
lineWidth: 0, tickmarkPlacement: ‘on’,
plotLines: [{ value: 0, width: 2, zIndex: 1 }]
}
});
}

function setMobileMarginBottom(margin) {
mobileMarginBottom = margin;
}

// sets the title of the highchart
function setTitle(text) {
title = text;
}

// sets the subtitle
function setSubTitle(text) {
subTitle = text;
}

function setSourceLine(source) {
sourceLine = source;
}

function setXAxisType(type) {
xAxisType = type;
}

function setXAxisTitle(title) {
xAxisTitle = title;
}

function setYAxisLabel(label) {
yAxisLabel = label;
}

function setEnableYAxisLabel(value) {
enableYAxisLabel = value;
}

function setPointStart(start) {
xAxisMin = convertDateToUTC(start);
}

function setXAxisMin(value) {
xAxisMin = value;
}

function setYAxisMin(value) {
yAxisMin = value;
}

function setReversed(value) {
reverse = value;
}

function setCategories(cats) {
categories = cats;
}

// add a series to the data chart with the series name as the first argucment and an array as the second arguement
function addSeries(seriesName, seriesData, visible = true) {
let seriesObject = {};
let description = title + “: ” + seriesName;
seriesObject = {name: seriesName, data: seriesData, visible: visible, accessibility: {description: description}};

dataSeries.push(seriesObject);
}

// used when you have a mix of series such as line, column
function addSeriesType(seriesName, seriesData, type, classColor=””, showInLegend = true, zIndex = 99 ) {
let seriesObject = {};
let description = title + “: ” + seriesName;
seriesObject = {name: seriesName, data: seriesData, accessibility: {description: description}, type: type, className: classColor, showInLegend: showInLegend, zIndex: zIndex };
dataSeries.push(seriesObject);
}

function hideSeries(chart, index) {
chart.series[index].hide();
let thisTitle = chart.title.textStr;

let newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);

window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘hideSeries’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ (series: ‘ + this.name + ‘) | ‘ + document.title });

}

function showSeries(chart, index) {
chart.series[index].show();
let thisTitle = chart.title.textStr;

let newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);
newTitle = thisTitle.replace(“
“,”: “);

window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
window.dataLayer.push({ ‘event’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘category’: ‘Highcharts’, ‘action’: ‘showSeries’, ‘label’: newTitle + ‘ (series: ‘ + this.name + ‘) | ‘ + document.title });
}

function setTooltipHeader(value) {
tooltipHeader = value;
}

// set tooltip for hover or click on a line series
function setTooltip(value) {
formattedTooltip = value;
}

// hide or show legend of the chart
function showLegend(enabled) {
isShowLegend = enabled;
}

function setLegendPosition(align, y) {
legendAlignPosition = align;
legendYPosition = y;
}

function setAdditionalTooltipData(data) {
additionalTooltipDataFormat = data;
}

// used for stacking columns
function setStacking(value) {
stacking = value;
}

function showLastDataLabel(enable) {
enableLastDataLabel = enable;
}

function hideRecessionBands(hide) {
if(hide) {
chartRecessionBands = null;
} else {
chartRecessionBands = recessionBands;
}
}

function setTickInterval(interval) {
tickInterval = interval;
}

// draws the chart and returns the chart reference
function drawChart(container) {
let formatString = formattedTooltip;
let tooltipHeaderFormat = tooltipHeader;
let additionalTooltipData = additionalTooltipDataFormat;
let chart = new Highcharts.Chart({
chart: {
polar: polar,
renderTo: container
},
title: {
align: ‘left’,
text: title,
useHTML: true,
width: $(`#${container}`)[0].offsetWidth * 0.8
},
subtitle: {
text: subTitle,
width: $(`#${container}`)[0].offsetWidth * 0.8
},
legend: {
enabled: isShowLegend, borderRadius: 5, borderWidth: 1, layout: ‘horizontal’, symbolWidth: 20,
useHTML: false, itemMarginTop: 2, itemMarginBottom: 2, verticalAlign: legendAlignPosition, y: legendYPosition
},
yAxis: {
labels: {
enabled: enableYAxisLabel
},
min: yAxisMin,
title: {
text: yAxisLabel
}
},
xAxis: {
min: xAxisMin,
categories: categories,
labels: {
y: undefined
},
plotBands: chartRecessionBands,
reversed: reverse,
tickInterval: tickInterval,
title: { text: xAxisTitle },
type: xAxisType
},
plotOptions: {
area: {
enableMouseTracking: enableTooltip,
stacking: stacking
},
arearange: {
lineWidth: 0,
marker: { enabled: false }
},
bar: {
dataLabels: {
enabled: true,
x: 50,
align: ‘right’
}
},
column: {
stacking: stacking
},
line: {
enableMouseTracking: enableTooltip,
dataLabels: {
enabled: enableLastDataLabel,
formatter: function() {
if (this.point.x == this.series.data[this.series.data.length-1].x && this.point.y == this.series.data[this.series.data.length-1].y) {
return ” + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.y, 1) + ‘%’;
}
}
},
label: {
connectorAllowed: false
},
marker: {
enabled: false
}
}
},
responsive: {
rules: [{
condition: {
maxWidth: 750
},
chartOptions: {
chart: {
marginBottom: mobileMarginBottom,
},
legend: {
itemWidth: 100,
verticalAlign: “top”,
x: -15,
y: 0
}
}
}]
},
series: dataSeries,
tooltip: {
enabled: enableTooltip,
formatter: function () {
let date = new Date(this.x);
var s = “”;

if(tooltipHeaderFormat.length > 0) {
s = eval(tooltipHeaderFormat);
}

if(formatString.length > 0) {
this.points.forEach(function (point, i) {
s += eval(formatString);
});
}
return s;
},
shared: true
}
});

const tabPanel = $(‘.tab-panel.active’);
let element = document.getElementById(container);
let chartWidth = element.offsetWidth;

// when a chart is inside a tab, the div width is the size of the tab header and not the full time
if(tabPanel.length > 0) {
const padding = parseFloat(window.getComputedStyle(tabPanel[0]).getPropertyValue(‘padding’)) * 2 + 3;
chartWidth = tabPanel[0].offsetWidth – padding;
$(‘.highcharts-title’).css(“width”, chartWidth * .8);
}

element.style.overflow = ‘visible’;
chart.renderer.html(”).add();


let lastPoint;

for(let i = 0; i < chart.series.length; i++) {
if(chart.series[i].data.length > 2 && typeof chart.series[i].data[chart.series[i].data.length – 2].y != “undefined” && chart.series[i].data[chart.series[i].data.length – 2].y=== null) {
lastPoint = chart.series[i].points[chart.series[i].points.length – 1];
lastPoint.update({marker: { enabled: true }}, false);
chart.series[i].chart.redraw();
}
}


chartList.push(chart);

$(‘.frba-highcharts-footer’).css(“width”, chartWidth);
$(‘.source-line’).css(“width”, chartWidth *.9);
return chart;
}

function destroyChart(chart) {
console.log(“in destroy chart”);
if(chart !== undefined) {
console.log(“chartList length b4”);
console.log(chartList.length);
for(let i = chartList.length-1; i >= 0; i–) {
if(chart.renderTo.id == chartList[i].renderTo.id) {
chartList.splice(i, 1);
console.log(“chartList length after”);
console.log(chartList.length);
chart.destroy();
}
}

}
}

// set the max data that can be shown on the xaxis of a chart with a start and end date.
function setExtremes(start, end, chart) {

let max = convertDateToUTC(end, 0);
const d = new Date(max);
d.setUTCMonth(d.getUTCMonth() + 1);


chart.xAxis[0].min = convertDateToUTC(start);
chart.xAxis[0].max = d.getTime();

chart.xAxis[0].setExtremes(chart.xAxis[0].min, chart.xAxis[0].max);

}

function addPlotBands(chart, data) {
chart.xAxis[0].addPlotBand(data);
}

function setPolar(value) {
polar = value;
}

function setEnableTooltip(value) {
enableTooltip = value;
}

return {
initializeHighcharts,
setTitle,
setSubTitle,
setSourceLine,
setXAxisType,
setXAxisTitle,
setXAxisMin,
setYAxisMin,
setReversed,
setYAxisLabel,
setEnableYAxisLabel,
setCategories,
setStacking,
setPointStart,
addSeries,
addSeriesType,
hideSeries,
showSeries,
setTooltipHeader,
setTooltip,
setEnableTooltip,
showLegend,
setLegendPosition,
drawChart,
destroyChart,
setExtremes,
setAdditionalTooltipData,
addPlotBands,
hideRecessionBands,
showLastDataLabel,
setTickInterval,
setPolar,
setMobileMarginBottom
}
}());

function createSlider(
sliderSelector,
dataArray,
chartInstance,
defaultStart = dataArray.length – 1,
getDateLabel = (date) => `${date[0].substring(0, 3)} ${date[2]}`
) {

let start = defaultStart === dataArray.length-1 ? 0 : dataArray.length – defaultStart – 1;
let max = dataArray.length – 1;

$(`${sliderSelector}`)[0].setAttribute(“default-start”, defaultStart);

$(sliderSelector).slider({
range: true,
min: 0,
max: max,
values: [start, max],
create: function () {
$(this)
.find(“.ui-slider-handle”)
.each(function (index) {
let pos = index === 0 ? start : max;
let date = getDateFromArray(dataArray, pos);
let label = getDateLabel(date);
$(this).append(`${label}`);
});
},
slide: function (event, ui) {
$(this)
.find(“.ui-slider-handle”)
.each(function (index) {
let date = getDateFromArray(dataArray, ui.values[index]);
$(this).find(“.handle-label”).text(getDateLabel(date));
});
},
stop: function (event, ui) {

const dates = ui.values.map(value => getDateFromArray(dataArray, value));
const labels = dates.map(date => getDateLabel(date));

$(this).find(“.ui-slider-handle .handle-label”).each((index, label) => {
$(label).html(labels[index]);
});

FRBAHighcharts.setExtremes(dates[0], dates[1], chartInstance);
}
});
}

window.addEventListener(‘load’, function() {
const resetButtonElements = document.querySelectorAll(‘.dataPickerReset’);
resetButtonElements.forEach(element => {
// resets slider to beginning and end position
element.addEventListener(‘click’, function(event) {

let id = this.getAttribute(“slider-id”);
let $slider = $(`#${id}`);
let defaultStart = $slider[0].getAttribute(“default-start”);
var maxValue = $slider.slider(‘option’, ‘max’);
let values = [maxValue-defaultStart, maxValue];

$slider.slider({values:values});
// invoke stop to redraw the chart
$slider.slider(“option”, “stop”).call($slider, null, {handle: $slider.find(“.ui-slider-handle”), values: values});
});
});


});

/* Some dates are in 3/1/2025 format while others are in March 1, 2025 Format */

function getDateFromArray(dataArray, uiValue) {
let date = [];

if(dataArray[uiValue].Date == undefined) {
// handle 1 dimentional array
if (!dataArray.some(element => Array.isArray(element))) {
date = dataArray[uiValue].split(“https://www.atlantafed.org/”);
} else {
// handle 2 dimentional array
date = dataArray[uiValue][0].split(“https://www.atlantafed.org/”);
}
date[0] = monthNames[date[0]-1];
} else {
date = dataArray[uiValue].Date.split(” “);
}

return date;
}

// dates come in as either [“Month name”, “dd”, “yyyy”] or m/dd/yyyy
// the monthIndex is used for the max due to 3/31 needs to be 4/1 to show the first tick(far right) on the x axis
function convertDateToUTC(date, monthIndex = 1) {
let utc;
if(!date.isArray && date.includes(“https://www.atlantafed.org/”)) {
let dateArray = date.split(“https://www.atlantafed.org/”);
utc = Date.UTC(parseInt(dateArray[2]), parseInt(dateArray[0]) – monthIndex, parseInt(dateArray[1]));
} else {
utc = Date.UTC(parseInt(date[2]), monthNames.indexOf(date[0]), parseInt(date[1]));
}

return utc;
}

window.addEventListener(‘resize’, function() {
// Clear the previous timeout
clearTimeout(resizeTimeout);

// Set a new timeout to execute the function when the user stops resizing
resizeTimeout = setTimeout(function() {
// This will be executed when the user stops resizing
for(let i = 0; i < chartList.length; i++) {
const chart = chartList[i];
const tabPanel = $(‘.tab-panel.active’);
let chartWidth = chart.chartWidth;

if(tabPanel.length > 0) {
const padding = parseFloat(window.getComputedStyle(tabPanel[0]).getPropertyValue(‘padding’)) * 2 + 3;
chartWidth = tabPanel[0].offsetWidth – padding;
$(‘.highcharts-title’).css(“width”, chartWidth * .8);
}

chart.title.textWidth = chartWidth *.8;
chart.subtitle.textWidth = chartWidth *.8;
$(‘.frba-highcharts-footer’).css(“width”, chartWidth);
$(‘.source-line’).css(“width”, chartWidth *.9);
chart.redraw();
}
}, 250); // 250 milliseconds delay before executing the resize
});

let mptRateMoves = null;
let mptTargetRange = null;
let mptDistributions = null;

window.addEventListener(‘load’, function() {
const mptChart = document.getElementById(‘chart-mpt-rate-moves’);
const checkboxes = document.querySelectorAll(‘.mpt-series’);
const dateInputs = document.querySelectorAll(‘.date-picker’);

if(mptChart) {
RateMovesHeadings.reverse();
let [date1, date2] = buildDateMenus();
populateContractDropDownMenu();
mptRateMoves = createRateMoves(date1, date2);
mptTargetRange = createTargetRangeProbabilities(date1, date2);
mptDistributions = createDistributionOfFutureAverage(date1, date2);
}

// put charts back in original state
$(“#reset”).click(function() {
const date1 = dates[dates.length – 2];
const date2 = dates[dates.length – 1];
$(“#contract-date”).val($(‘#contract-date option:first’).val());

$(“#datepicker-from-input”).val(date1);
$(“#datepicker-to-input”).val(date2);

handleChartChange(date1, date2);
});

// a new contract is selected, change the charts accordingly
$(“#contract-date”).on(‘change’, function() {
const date1 = $(“#datepicker-from-input”).val();
const date2 = $(“#datepicker-to-input”).val();

handleChartChange(date1, date2);
});

checkboxes.forEach((item) => {
item.addEventListener(‘click’, function (e) {
// get the series index from the checkbox name

const index = $(‘#’ + this.name).attr(“date-index”) – 1;

if(this.checked) {
FRBAHighcharts.showSeries(mptRateMoves, index);
FRBAHighcharts.showSeries(mptRateMoves, index+2);
FRBAHighcharts.showSeries(mptTargetRange, index);
FRBAHighcharts.showSeries(mptDistributions, index);
} else {
FRBAHighcharts.hideSeries(mptRateMoves, index);
FRBAHighcharts.hideSeries(mptRateMoves, index+2);
FRBAHighcharts.hideSeries(mptTargetRange, index);
FRBAHighcharts.hideSeries(mptDistributions, index);
}
});
});

// Date’s can’t fall on the weekend. If it’s a saturday, pick the previous day, if it’s a sunday, pick the next day.
// As long as the dates fall within the min/max
dateInputs.forEach((item) => {
item.addEventListener(‘input’, function() {
const selectedDate = new Date(this.value);
const day = selectedDate.getUTCDay();

if (day === 6) { // Saturday
if (this.value > this.min) {
this.value = new Date(selectedDate.setDate(selectedDate.getDate() – 1)).toISOString().split(‘T’)[0];
} else {
this.value = new Date(selectedDate.setDate(selectedDate.getDate() + 2)).toISOString().split(‘T’)[0];
}
} else if (day === 0) { // Sunday
if (this.value < this.max) {
this.value = new Date(selectedDate.setDate(selectedDate.getDate() + 1)).toISOString().split(‘T’)[0];
} else {
this.value = new Date(selectedDate.setDate(selectedDate.getDate() – 2)).toISOString().split(‘T’)[0];
}
}

const date1 = $(“#datepicker-from-input”).val();
const date2 = $(“#datepicker-to-input”).val();

mptRateMoves = createRateMoves(date1, date2);
mptTargetRange = createTargetRangeProbabilities(date1, date2);
mptDistributions = createDistributionOfFutureAverage(date1, date2);
});
});
});


function buildDateMenus() {
/* reverse the “dates” array so the values are in chronological order */
dates.reverse();
const date1 = dates[dates.length – 2];
const date2 = dates[dates.length – 1];
const min = dates[0];
const max = dates[dates.length – 1];
const minArray = min.split(“-“);
const maxArray = max.split(“-“);

$(“#datepicker-from-input”).val(date1);
$(“#datepicker-to-input”).val(date2);

// set the min and max calendar dates
$(“#datepicker-from-input”).attr(“min”, min);
$(“#datepicker-from-input”).attr(“max”, max);
$(“#datepicker-to-input”).attr(“min”, min);
$(“#datepicker-to-input”).attr(“max”, max);

let message = “The available dates range from: ” +
minArray[1] + “https://www.atlantafed.org/” + minArray[2] + “https://www.atlantafed.org/” + minArray[0] + ” to ” +
maxArray[1] + “https://www.atlantafed.org/” + maxArray[2] + “https://www.atlantafed.org/” + maxArray[0] + ‘. ‘ +
“Dates selected on the weekend will be changed to the closest available date.”;

$(“#description-dates”).html(message);

return [date1, date2];
}

/* build the contract select menus*/
function populateContractDropDownMenu() {
for(let i = 1; i < 5; i++) {
$(“#contract-date”).append(
$(“”, { value: “contract” + i }).text(eval(`contract${i}_startDate`)[0])
);
}
}


function handleChartChange(date1, date2) {
FRBAHighcharts.destroyChart(mptRateMoves);
FRBAHighcharts.destroyChart(mptTargetRange);
FRBAHighcharts.destroyChart(mptDistributions);

mptRateMoves = createRateMoves(date1, date2);
mptTargetRange = createTargetRangeProbabilities(date1, date2);
mptDistributions = createDistributionOfFutureAverage(date1, date2);
}

function createRateMoves(date1, date2) {

let rateMovesHeadingsForChartCategories = [];
/* build the rate moves select menu; select every third item and extract the date part of the column’s name, which is formatted like YYYY-MM-DD_value */

for (let i = 0; i < RateMovesHeadings.length; i = i + 3) {
rateMovesHeadingsForChartCategories.push(RateMovesHeadings[i].split(“_”)[0]);
}

let beginDateMidPoints = [];
let endDateMidPoints = [];
let beginDateRange = [];
let endDateRange = [];

for (let thisRate = 1; thisRate <= rateMovesHeadingsForChartCategories.length; thisRate++) {
beginDateMidPoints.push(getValueForDate(getRateMovesMidpoints(thisRate), date1));
endDateMidPoints.push(getValueForDate(getRateMovesMidpoints(thisRate), date2));
beginDateRange.push(getLowHighForDate(getRateMovesRanges(thisRate), date1));
endDateRange.push(getLowHighForDate(getRateMovesRanges(thisRate), date2));
}

const tooltip = “‘
● ‘ + point.series.name + ‘: ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(point.y, 1) + ‘%'”;

FRBAHighcharts.initializeHighcharts();
FRBAHighcharts.setTitle(“The Expected Three-Month Average SOFR Path”);
FRBAHighcharts.setSubTitle(“Current target range: ” + RateMovesBasisPoints + ” basis points”);
FRBAHighcharts.setYAxisLabel(“Basis Points”);
FRBAHighcharts.hideRecessionBands(true);
FRBAHighcharts.setCategories(rateMovesHeadingsForChartCategories);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeries(date1, beginDateMidPoints);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeries(date2, endDateMidPoints);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeriesType(“date 1:range”, beginDateRange, “arearange”, “highcharts-area-range-1”, false);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeriesType(“date 2:range”, endDateRange, “arearange”, “highcharts-area-range-2″, false);

// getComputedStyle(point.series.group.element).fill + ‘;\”>● ‘ + point.series.name

FRBAHighcharts.setTooltipHeader(“this.points[0].series.chart.xAxis[0].categories[this.x] + ‘
● expected: ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.points[0].point.y, 2) + ‘
● range: ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.points[2].point.low, 2) + ‘ to ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.points[2].point.high, 2)”);
FRBAHighcharts.setMobileMarginBottom(150);
let chart = FRBAHighcharts.drawChart(“chart-mpt-rate-moves”);

for(let i = 0; i < chart.series.length; i++) {
if(chart.series[i].type === “line”) {
chart.series[i].update({marker: {enabled: true}}, false);
}
}
chart.redraw();

return chart;
}

function createTargetRangeProbabilities(date1, date2) {

let dateOneProbabilities = [];
let dateTwoProbabilities = [];
let availableBuckets = new Map();
const contractDate = $(“#contract-date option:selected”).text();
const contractArray = contractDate.split(“-“);

// The buckets along the x axis are based on all the current contract dates, the ProbBucket
// is a complete list of all posible buckets
for (let i = 0; i < buckets.length; i++) {
for (let j = 0; j < ProbBucket.length; j++) {
if (buckets[i] == ProbBucket[j] &&
ProbContract[j] == contractDate &&
ProbDate[j] == date1) {
dateOneProbabilities.push(Prob[j]);
availableBuckets.set(buckets[i], 1);
} else if (buckets[i] == ProbBucket[j] &&
ProbContract[j] == contractDate &&
ProbDate[j] == date2) {
dateTwoProbabilities.push(Prob[j]);
availableBuckets.set(buckets[i], 1);
}
}
}

let b = [];

for (let i = 0; i < buckets.length; i++) {
if (availableBuckets.get(buckets[i]) == 1) {
b.push(buckets[i]);
}
}

// If there are a lot of categories, they will appear vertically so there needs to be more
// room to display them

let marginSize = 110;
if(b.length > 15) {
marginSize = 180;
}

FRBAHighcharts.initializeHighcharts(“column”, marginSize);
FRBAHighcharts.setTitle(“Target Range Probabilities for ” + monthNames[contractArray[1]-1] + ” ” + contractArray[0]);
FRBAHighcharts.setYAxisLabel(“Probability”);
FRBAHighcharts.hideRecessionBands(true);
FRBAHighcharts.setCategories(b);
FRBAHighcharts.setStacking(null);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeries(date1, dateOneProbabilities);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeries(date2, dateTwoProbabilities);
FRBAHighcharts.setTooltip(“‘
Date: ‘ + point.series.name + ‘, Probability: ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(point.y, 2)”);
FRBAHighcharts.setMobileMarginBottom(170);
let chart = FRBAHighcharts.drawChart(“chart-mpt-target-range-probabilites”);
return chart;
}

function createDistributionOfFutureAverage(date1, date2) {

const contract = $(“#contract-date”).val();
const contractDate = $(“#contract-date option:selected”).text();
const dateOneProbabilities = eval(`${contract}_point${dates.indexOf(date1) + 1}`);
const dateTwoProbabilities = eval(`${contract}_point${dates.indexOf(date2) + 1}`);

// getComputedStyle(point.series.group.element).fill + ‘;\”>● ‘ + point.series.name
/*
FRBAHighcharts.setTooltipHeader(“this.points[0].series.chart.xAxis[0].categories[this.x] + ‘
● expected: ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.points[0].point.y, 2) + ‘
● range: ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.points[2].point.low, 2) + ‘ to ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(this.points[2].point.high, 2)”);
*/

FRBAHighcharts.initializeHighcharts(“spline”);
FRBAHighcharts.setTitle(“The Distribution of Future Three-Month Average SOFR”);
FRBAHighcharts.setSubTitle(“Starting: ” + contractDate);
FRBAHighcharts.hideRecessionBands(true);
FRBAHighcharts.setCategories([]);
FRBAHighcharts.setTickInterval(20);
FRBAHighcharts.setXAxisTitle(“Basis Points”);
FRBAHighcharts.setTooltip(“‘
●’ + point.series.name + ‘, ‘ + Highcharts.numberFormat(point.y, 1)”);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeries(date1, dateOneProbabilities);
FRBAHighcharts.addSeries(date2, dateTwoProbabilities);
FRBAHighcharts.setMobileMarginBottom(130);
let chart = FRBAHighcharts.drawChart(“chart-mpt-distribution-of-future-average”);
return chart;
}

function getRateMovesMidpoints(n) {
return eval(`RateMovesMidpoint${n}`);
}

function getRateMovesRanges(n) {
return eval(`RateMovesRange${n}`);
}

function getValueForDate(data, date) {
const matchingItem = data.find(item => item[0] === date);
return matchingItem ? matchingItem[1] : null;
}

function getLowHighForDate(data, date) {
const matchingItem = data.filter(item => item.x === date);
let range = [];
range.push(parseFloat(matchingItem[0].low));
range.push(parseFloat(matchingItem[0].high));
return range;
}

(function(c,l,a,r,i,t,y){
c[a]=c[a]||function(){(c[a].q=c[a].q||[]).push(arguments)};
t=l.createElement(r);t.async=1;t.src=”https://www.clarity.ms/tag/”+i;
y=l.getElementsByTagName(r)[0];y.parentNode.insertBefore(t,y);
})(window, document, “clarity”, “script”, “jgl6rwv6yx”);
























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