Quick overview
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been volatile this week, trading between $63.40 and $63.75. Traders are caught between rising tensions in the Middle East and concerns about a growing global supply surplus, which could limit price gains.
Geopolitical Friction vs. Diplomatic Hope
The main reason for today’s price swings is the second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks happening in Geneva.
1. Strait of Hormuz Drills
Ahead of the talks, Iran started maritime drills in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil shipments. This comes after the U.S. sent a second aircraft carrier to the area.
If there is any disruption in this key waterway, oil prices could rise to between $70 and $80.
2. Sanctions Relief Potential
On the other hand, if the talks succeed, prices could fall. Iran’s atomic chief has said the country is willing to dilute enriched uranium if financial sanctions are lifted.
If a deal is reached, more Iranian oil could enter the market, which might push WTI prices down to around $60.
The “Swelling Glut”: OPEC+ and IEA Warnings
Although geopolitical news adds a risk premium to prices, the basic market fundamentals are still weak.
OPEC+ Output Hikes: Reports say OPEC+ may start increasing oil output again in April to meet higher summer demand. However, this could add to an already expected surplus in the market.
IEA Surplus Projections: The International Energy Agency (IEA) still expects a large supply surplus in 2026, estimating it at 3.8 million barrels per day. This is because oil production from the U.S., Brazil, and Canada keeps reaching new highs.
Thin Holiday Liquidity: Trading volumes are low because of the Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and the recent U.S. Presidents’ Day break. This can make price swings more pronounced when there is less trading activity.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Critical Support at $62.15
From a technical perspective, WTI is trading in a gentle upward channel but is having trouble staying above the key $64.00 level.
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Level Type
Price Point
Market Significance
Major Resistance
$65.83
The recent swing high; a break here confirms a bullish breakout.
Immediate Resistance
$63.98
Reclaiming this is essential to invalidate the short-term pullback.
Key Support (200-EMA)
$62.93
The “dynamic floor” that has held buyers since mid-February.
Critical Support
$62.15
A breach here would signal a trend reversal toward the $60.00 psychological base.
The Verdict: Weekly Bias
For the week of February 17, 2026, the outlook is neutral to bearish if prices stay below $63.98.
It seems the market expects the Geneva talks to prevent any immediate military action, which is keeping prices lower.
Until we know the results of the U.S.-Iran talks and the March 1 OPEC+ meeting, prices are likely to test the $62.90 support level.
Trade Idea: If WTI drops below $63.00, consider short positions with a target of $62.15 and a stop-loss above the 50-EMA at $63.80.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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