(As the 2026 USMCA review approaches amid a climate of new tariffs and diplomatic friction, the North American private sector holds a powerful strategic lever. Beyond traditional lobbying, business leaders in Mexico and Canada can help pave the way to successful negotiations through the formal integration of refugee and migrant talent. By transforming migration challenges into a source of human capital and growth, companies can solve critical labor shortages while demonstrating a proactive model for regional stability.)

In 2026, the very idea of North America as a geopolitical concept is at risk. By July 1, Mexico, Canada, and the United States must conduct the mandatory joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Following this review, all three parties must agree to extend the agreement for another 16-year term or face a 10-year countdown to its termination in 2036. 

The preparatory work has been extensive. In September of last year, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Mexico City for high-level consultations. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum visited Canada in June 2025 for a special invitation to the G7 Summit in Alberta. In January of this year, Sheinbaum welcomed Canadian Governor General Mary Simon. Bilateral cooperation between Mexico and Canada has become stronger. 

Meanwhile, Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard and Deputy Minister for North America Roberto Velasco have made repeated trips to Washington to lay the groundwork. Mexico reinstated its “cuarto de junto” — a coalition of the country’s largest firms and business associations. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has made clear that all options remain on the table: exit, revision, or full renegotiation.

Beyond the rapidly approaching trade talks, North American economic resilience depends on inclusive growth within the formal labor market. In Mexico, integrating refugees and migrants into formal employment has shifted from a humanitarian goal to a strategic economic necessity. By transforming this untapped talent into productive private-sector contributors, Mexico can strengthen its supply chains and prove that a robust, integrated workforce is the best defense against regional volatility. Without prioritizing this human capital, our trade strategy remains vulnerable to the political uncertainty ahead.

Migration: A Source of Persistent Tension

The USMCA renegotiation unfolds against a challenging backdrop. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada under the justification of addressing migration and drug trafficking. He has publicly discussed making Canada the 51st US state and suggested military intervention in Mexico.

This approach has pushed allies to recalibrate their strategies. Carney became the first Canadian leader to visit Beijing in eight years, announcing a “new strategic partnership” with China and securing tariff relief on agricultural products and electric vehicles. In parallel, Mexico is promoting a broad campaign, Hecho en México, to boost the consumption of Mexican products globally.

Amid the turbulence, there is a way the private sector can contribute to smoother sailing: by hiring migrants and refugees. Migration has been a constant source of tension between Mexico and the United States. Although security concerns now drive much of the diplomatic friction, irregular migration fueled Trump’s political campaigns and the rise of the extreme far right globally. 

According to the Brookings Institution, in 2025, the United States experienced negative net migration for the first time in over 50 years. More than 1.6 million people lost their legal status to remain in the U.S. during the year, according to NPR. Given migration’s central role in shaping political discourse and bilateral tensions, it would be short-sighted to ignore it during the USMCA review. However, there is an opportunity to address it constructively and intelligently.

The Economic Case: Refugees and Migrants as Catalysts for Growth

The answer lies in recognizing what migrants and refugees actually represent: human capital and a key component for growth and innovation. Despite all the hostile rhetoric, migrants and refugees are a scarce resource that demographic trends show is increasingly essential. Approximately 70%  of Mexican employers report difficulty in filling roles in critical industries, such as manufacturing, logistics, and hospitality.

According to the IOM and UNHCR, more than 1.2 million migrants and 172,000 asylum seekers reside in Mexico today, with nearly half expressing their intention to stay and rebuild their lives. Many bring diverse skills and experience, yet face significant barriers to formal employment. At the same time, demography shows an aging national workforce while companies urgently need workers.

This is where organizations like Tent México come in. Our coalition of 80 major companies in Mexico focuses on connecting refugees and migrants who have work authorization to formal job opportunities. The business case is compelling: refugee and migrant workers demonstrate higher retention rates, staying in their jobs four to six months longer than local talent. They bring resourcefulness, adaptability, and fresh perspectives that fuel innovation and productivity. Mexican consumers reward this approach: 74% say they’re more likely to buy from companies that hire refugees.

A Strategic Opportunity for the Private Sector

Mexican companies should considerably boost their efforts to hire refugees and migrants as a strategic response to the USMCA renegotiation. Rather than creating barriers,  the private sector can serve as a sponge that absorbs the benefits from refugee and migrant talent. This approach delivers multiple dividends. It addresses the labor shortages hampering North American competitiveness. It demonstrates to Washington that Mexico is responsibly managing migration flows through integration. And perhaps most importantly, it helps create a more positive regional context for the crucial 2026 negotiations.

The logic is straightforward but powerful: When Mexican companies hire refugees and migrants at scale, they effectively eliminate one of the core justifications for the United States threatening tariffs against Mexico. By demonstrating that migration flows are being managed through labor market integration rather than irregular crossings, the private sector removes ammunition from protectionist arguments. 

This, in turn, makes it harder to justify punitive tariffs on the very exports these companies produce. For a manufacturer in Monterrey or a logistics company in Guadalajara, hiring refugees and migrants becomes a form of trade insurance: you strengthen your workforce while simultaneously reducing the political pressure that could result in tariffs on your goods entering the US market. For business leaders worried that the free trade agreement will perish, this is your opportunity. 

When you bring refugee and migrant workers into your operations, you’re not just filling positions, you’re actively shaping a more dynamic, inclusive North America that can present a united front. Regional integration works best when it’s built on shared prosperity, not coercion and threats. In times of xenophobia and aggressive nationalism, the private sector can demonstrate that North America’s greatest asset isn’t divisions or tariffs, but its ability to welcome talent and put it to productive use.