According to British intelligence, at the start of February 2026 Russia significantly intensified its daily drone launches aimed at striking Ukraine, with energy infrastructure remaining the main target. The report of February 19 emphasizes that further actions will concentrate specifically on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
In January 2026, Russia carried out approximately 4,400 drone strikes against Ukrainian targets, indicating a modest decrease compared with about 5,100 UAVs recorded in December 2025 – possibly due to unfavorable weather conditions. Intelligence indicates activity rose in early February: on average about 190 launches per day, compared with about 140 per day in January.
It is reported that after a brief pause in energy strikes from January 28 to February 2, 2026, both sides observed a certain understanding, but Russia immediately returned to broad-scale strikes against Ukraine’s energy sector on February 3, 2026.
Critical infrastructure related to energy has been Russia’s main target since the beginning of October 2025. Russia has launched more than 20,000 unmanned aerial vehicles and over 300 missiles fired by its fleet of long-range bombers, attempting to systematically destroy Ukraine’s electric grid and heating-generation capacities. This coordinated campaign has also affected water supply. Any pause in using these missiles allows Russia to build up its stocks for future strikes, with its main target almost certainly remaining the energy infrastructure
– Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom
Intelligence also believes that Russia could compensate for any gaps in the use of long-range bombers by drawing on its arsenal of weapons for deep strikes.
Russia heavily relied on short-range ballistic missiles for this purpose, which were used in a much greater number during this winter offensive campaign than earlier in the war
– In the briefing
Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, Russia has continued to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In autumn 2025, the shelling intensified; the Security Service of Ukraine qualifies these strikes as crimes against humanity. According to the SBU, since the start of the current heating season there have been at least 256 air attacks on energy facilities and heating systems.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry stressed that it regards Russian strikes on energy, which deprive Ukrainians of heat during severe frosts, as acts of genocide. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed that Russia allegedly did not begin attacks on civilian targets, and that Ukraine was the first to strike at its energy infrastructure.
Context and implications for the energy system
Analysts emphasize that a targeted attack on the energy infrastructure has destructive consequences for heat and water supply, as well as for the functioning of critical infrastructure in Ukrainian regions, especially during the cold season. As a result of the damages, the energy system pushes people and businesses to adopt more energy-efficient solutions and faces rising heating costs.
Within the framework of the international response, experts emphasize the importance of maintaining support for Ukraine’s energy system and pressure from allies to reduce the intensity of strikes and minimize humanitarian consequences.
Experts point to the need for comprehensive support for Ukraine’s energy security, modernization of the grid, and strengthening of reserves to reduce the impact of hostile actions on people’s lives and the country’s economy.