(Bloomberg) — Data from Germany in the coming days will shed light on whether Europe’s largest economy is on the cusp of a meaningful revival or still being hampered by Donald Trump’s tariffs and its own chronic shortcomings.

Releases will include the premier indicator of economic mood, from the Ifo Institute, and a closer look at the nation’s fourth-quarter performance, which topped expectations. There’ll also be monthly updates on consumer sentiment and unemployment.

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Analysts reckon Ifo’s barometers of expectations and how firms view current conditions will tick up slightly on Monday, tracking improvements already seen in surveys of purchasing managers. As well as beating forecasts, those polls delivered the long-awaited news that Germany’s manufacturing sector is growing again — for the first time since 2022.

Wednesday will see Germany’s statistics office flesh out the reasons behind a 0.3% advance in gross domestic product at the end of 2025, having initially attributed the success to spending by households and the government. The Bundesbank has also cited growth in industry and notable strength in construction.

A rebound in the former is seen as crucial for Germany to shake off years of stagnating or shrinking output. As well as the PMIs, factory orders shot up in December — suggesting the large sums Germany is spending on rebuilding its infrastructure and military are starting to be felt.

An industrial revival would be welcomed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who’s struggling to convince Germans of his economic vision and facing calls from business leaders to make good on promises to slash bureaucracy and boost competitiveness.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“We don’t anticipate a meaningful near-term economic acceleration in Germany, forecasting growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.3% in the second quarter. Increased public spending on infrastructure and defense is expected to provide a larger boost in the second half of 2026, lifting quarterly GDP growth to 0.4%. That would leave calendar-adjusted annual growth at 0.8% in 2026, up from 0.3% in 2025.”

—Martin Ademmer, economist. For full analysis, click here

Complicating an already uncertain backdrop is the possibility that Christine Lagarde fails to serve out her term at the helm of the European Central Bank, which has brought inflation to heel and laid the groundwork for the euro zone’s own economic recovery.

An early exit by Lagarde — who’s set to speak in Washington on Monday and in the European Parliament on Thursday — could be a distraction for Merz, who may have to decide sooner than expected whether he wants to push for Germany’s first ECB president.

Elsewhere, inflation readings from Australia to the euro area to Brazil and GDP numbers from India to Canada will be in focus. Central banks in Korea and Thailand are expected to keep interest rates steady, while Israel and Nigeria may cut.

The fallout from the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s global trade duties will also garner attention.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday that the tariff-policy defeat won’t unravel individual deals the administration has sealed with its trading partners.

Still, the European Parliament’s trade chief said he’ll propose freezing the EU’s ratification process of the trade deal with the US until they’ve received details from Washington on its trade policy.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

The latest report on US wholesale inflation will likely be the most closely watched in the coming week. Growth in producer prices is expected to have settled back in January after jumping at the end of last year.

February data on manufacturing activity from the Richmond Fed and consumer confidence are also on the schedule, along with weekly labor reports on private payrolls from ADP Research and unemployment claims.

Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook are scheduled to speak, as are regional presidents Austan Goolsbee and Raphael Bostic, among others.

Statistics Canada will release fourth-quarter GDP by expenditure, with the Bank of Canada expecting a flat reading even as industry-based data point to a contraction. US tariffs and slowing immigration continue to weigh on growth, while higher government capital spending and modestly accommodative rates are helping to offset some of that drag.

Several inflation reports will grab the spotlight in the Asia-Pacific.

Fresh off the Reserve Bank’s rate hike earlier in the month, Australia gets data Wednesday that will indicate whether elevated price gains at the end of 2025 carried over into January.

On Friday, Japan’s price data for Tokyo are likely to show that the gauge excluding fresh food slid to 2% in February, the slowest pace in more than a year. Even so, the figures won’t derail the Bank of Japan from its quest to normalize policy settings with rate hikes, as the slowdown will reflect temporary effects from utility subsidies and comparison with a fast advance a year earlier.

Also in the coming week, Sri Lanka publishes its Colombo CPI gauge for February, and Singapore releases January CPI data.

India publishes fourth-quarter GDP figures on Friday, with economists looking for a slight moderation of growth to 7.4% year on year after an 8.2% surge in the previous period.

New Zealand releases a pair of February sentiment surveys, the ANZ Business Confidence gauge on Thursday and, a day later, the ANZ Consumer Confidence index. The latter soared to its highest reading in more than four years in January.

Trade data is scheduled from Sri Lanka, Hong Kong, Thailand and the Philippines.

On the policy front, China will likely hold its 1- and 5-year loan prime rates steady on Tuesday, while Bank of Thailand officials gather a day later to debate whether to follow their December rate cut with another. With the government having upgraded its growth projections for 2026, the broad consensus is for a hold, but it’s not a unanimous position.

The Bank of Korea on Thursday is expected to hold its base rate steady after essentially ending its easing cycle in recent months, with the focus falling on any hints about the policy trajectory in 2026.

Germany, France and Spain will release preliminary inflation data for February, with Bloomberg Economics seeing energy and food prices as the main drivers.

Those numbers — due at the end of the week — come after the final reading for the euro area, which will shed light on what pushed the services measure lower in January.

A few ECB speakers are set to appear. Lagarde kicked off things on Sunday, telling CBS’s that the repercussions from the US Supreme Court’s tariff ruling could create new business disruptionsShe speaks next at an award ceremony in Washington on Monday, and faces lawmaker scrutiny in the ECON Committee of EU Parliament in Brussels on Thursday.

Lagarde’s future vice president, Croatia’s Boris Vujcic, will be in front of that same committee a day earlier as part of the formal process to assume his new role in June.

Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Primoz Dolenc are also are scheduled to speak and the ECB’s full-year results and its survey of consumers’ inflation expectations are due toward the end of the week.

In the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence on the latest Monetary Policy Report to a parliamentary committee on Tuesday, joined by colleagues Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Alan Taylor.

On the fiscal front, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents his annual budget on Wednesday, a speech to be closely watched by investors for signs the government remains committed to repairing public finances. After years of strain, the budget is expected to showcase progress on fiscal consolidation, supported by stronger revenue collection and a narrower deficit.

Several rate decisions are due in the region:

On Monday, Israel’s central bank is expected to cut its benchmark by 25 basis points to 3.75%, as the shekel’s appreciation and a slowdown in annual inflation to 1.8% — below the midpoint of the 1%–3% target range — ease pressure on policymakers. Still, officials have sent mixed signals: Governor Amir Yaron said last month the bank would remain cautious on easing, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has stepped up calls for rate cuts.

A day later, Hungary decides whether to begin a long-awaited cutting cycle that would come less than two months before a closely-watched general election.

The same day, Nigerian policymakers are set to resume their easing cycle after inflation unexpectedly slowed in January. The central bank will likely lower its key rate by 100 basis points to 26%.

On Thursday, Botswana is likely to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5% as inflation continues to accelerate.

Mexico kicks off a busy and telling week on Monday with final fourth-quarter output figures. While the flash readings posted last month were better than expected, they also portrayed an economy operating below its potential.

Mid-month consumer price readings on Tuesday may offer Mexican policymakers little reason to resume easing at their meeting next month, while Banxico’s quarterly inflation report is likely to sound a bit less dovish and a bit more cautious than its prior assessment in November.

Trump’s musings about pulling the US out of the USMCA trade deal sound to most observers like a negotiating tactic, but still add layers of risk and uncertainty to Mexico’s outlook.

Brazil will serve up a welter of economic reports — current account, foreign direct investment, lending, the broad-based IGP-M inflation index and the mid-month IPCA inflation reading, along with budget balances.

While the debt metrics bear watching — the year-end fiscal deficit has exceeded 8% in all three years of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s third term — the cooling of LatAm’s No. 1 economy suggests consumer price data will greenlight at least a quarter-point rate cut by the central bank next month.

December GDP-proxy figures from Argentina, especially if they suggest a continuation of November’s stall speed, may animate concerns over stagflation with consumer confidence running at a four-month low.

Peru, whose economy continues to power through the political chaos of having had five presidents in five years, is slated to post fourth-quarter and 2025 output. Based on the December GDP-proxy report published mid-month, annual GDP should come in at about 3.4% with a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion.

Chile-watchers can look forward to the usual end-of-month data dump, featuring seven separate economic reports for January, with the highlight being monthly copper production — the red metal is the South American nation’s top export.

—With assistance from Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Alexander Weber, Beril Akman, Brian Fowler, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans and Molly Smith.

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